Monastir: Marvin Moeller vs Lorenzo Giustino

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Lorenzo Giustino (63%) · Lorenzo Giustino at 58¢ · $682 held · ends Nov 20

Marvin Moeller42¢Lorenzo Giustino58¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lorenzo Giustino

Consensus Traders

Lorenzo Giustino 63%

Total Value

$681.64

Combined PnL

$14.15

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 58¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Giustino at 58%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Giustino

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Marvin Moeller42%

Lorenzo Giustino58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lorenzo Giustino5 traders

Total Value$456.23

Total Shares785

Combined PnL+$34.03

Marvin Moeller3 traders

Total Value$225.41

Total Shares537

Combined PnL-$19.87

Lorenzo Giustino — 63%Marvin Moeller — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Giustino. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLorenzo Giustino 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedLorenzo Giustino 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lorenzo Giustino 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 55¢	$191.88	$202.39	+$10.51	56% 324-253 (577)
VeryLucky888	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 53.6¢	$184.33	$199.28	+$14.95	52% 881-800 (1681)
nigiri99CTR	Marvin Moelleravg 45.3¢	$152.16	$141.12	-$11.04	52% 399-371 (770)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 46.4¢	$92.43	$83.58	-$8.85	55% 275-224 (499)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 50¢	$39.77	$46.93	+$7.16	42% 317-438 (755)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 50¢	$3.5	$4.13	+$0.63	45% 143-173 (316)
MA MadridTime<$100	Lorenzo Giustinoavg 46¢	$2.73	$3.5	+$0.77	36% 719-1303 (2022)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Marvin Moelleravg 41¢	$0.69	$0.71	+$0.02	49% 1103-1157 (2260)

0xheavy888

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$191.88

Value

$202.39

PnL

+$10.51

Record

56%

324-253 (577)

VeryLucky888

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$184.33

Value

$199.28

PnL

+$14.95

Record

52%

881-800 (1681)

nigiri99CTR

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$152.16

Value

$141.12

PnL

-$11.04

Record

52%

399-371 (770)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$92.43

Value

$83.58

PnL

-$8.85

Record

55%

275-224 (499)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$39.77

Value

$46.93

PnL

+$7.16

Record

42%

317-438 (755)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$3.5

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.63

Record

45%

143-173 (316)

MadridTime<$100

Lorenzo Giustino

Invested

$2.73

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.77

Record

36%

719-1303 (2022)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Marvin Moeller

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.71

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Giustino at 58%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Giustino

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Lorenzo Giustino. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLorenzo Giustino 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedLorenzo Giustino 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lorenzo Giustino 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lorenzo Giustino wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.