Charlottesville: Shunsuke Mitsui vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Shunsuke Mitsui (73%) · Shunsuke Mitsui at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Shunsuke Mitsui
11
Shunsuke Mitsui 73%
$3.3K
$126.29
72.6¢ → 100¢
+38% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralShunsuke Mitsui at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 80¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$200.47 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 48¢ | $429.34 | $451.7 | +$22.36 | 50% 19465-19831 (39296) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 77.1¢ | $494.62 | $391.84 | -$107.09 | 52% 13935-12713 (26648) |
TH thestingsnake | Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 94.2¢ | $368.33 | $367.83 | +$4 | 60% 4110-2768 (6878) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 48.6¢ | $339.13 | $318.71 | +$6.49 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 48.3¢ | $52.57 | $53.81 | +$1.24 | 61% 13796-8679 (22475) |
SC SchruteBucks<$100 | Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 86.3¢ | $20.45 | $15.17 | -$0.37 | 56% 1868-1450 (3318) |
 RN1<$100 | Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 50¢ | $5 | $5.05 | +$0.05 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 50¢ | $5 | $5.05 | +$0.05 | 55% 7319-5884 (13203) |
 TRCM<$100 | Shunsuke Mitsuiavg 80¢ | $8 | $5.05 | -$2.95 | 55% 3962-3193 (7155) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Geoffrey Blancaneauxavg 9¢ | $0.45 | $2.48 | +$2.03 | 51% 6082-5802 (11884) |
Invested
$1,433.28
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$200.47
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$429.34
Value
$451.7
PnL
+$22.36
Record
50%
19465-19831 (39296)
Invested
$494.62
Value
$391.84
PnL
-$107.09
Record
52%
13935-12713 (26648)
Invested
$368.33
Value
$367.83
PnL
+$4
Record
60%
4110-2768 (6878)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$339.13
Value
$318.71
PnL
+$6.49
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
Invested
$52.57
Value
$53.81
PnL
+$1.24
Record
61%
13796-8679 (22475)
Invested
$20.45
Value
$15.17
PnL
-$0.37
Record
56%
1868-1450 (3318)
RN1<$100Invested
$5
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.05
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$5
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.05
Record
55%
7319-5884 (13203)
TRCM<$100Invested
$8
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$2.95
Record
55%
3962-3193 (7155)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$0.45
Value
$2.48
PnL
+$2.03
Record
51%
6082-5802 (11884)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
Shunsuke Mitsui — $1.6K
omnibus-076daa
Shunsuke Mitsui — $451.7
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Shunsuke Mitsui — $391.84
thestingsnake
Shunsuke Mitsui — $367.83
VeryLucky888
CTRGeoffrey Blancaneaux — $318.71
Lilybaeum
CTRGeoffrey Blancaneaux — $53.81
SchruteBucks
Shunsuke Mitsui — $15.17
RN1
Shunsuke Mitsui — $5.05
0xheavy888
Shunsuke Mitsui — $5.05
TRCM
Shunsuke Mitsui — $5.05