Helsinki: Luka Mikrut vs Iiro Vasa

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Luka Mikrut (60%) · Luka Mikrut at 93¢ · $769 held · ends Nov 22

Luka Mikrut93¢Iiro Vasa7¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Luka Mikrut

Consensus Traders

Luka Mikrut 60%

Total Value

$769.32

Combined PnL

-$24.55

Smart Money Entry

91.2¢ → 93¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralLuka Mikrut at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Luka Mikrut

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Luka Mikrut93%

Iiro Vasa7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Luka Mikrut6 traders

Total Value$747.3

Total Shares795

Combined PnL+$22.71

Iiro Vasa4 traders

Total Value$22.03

Total Shares315

Combined PnL-$47.25

Luka Mikrut — 60%Iiro Vasa — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Luka Mikrut. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLuka Mikrut 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedLuka Mikrut 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Luka Mikrut 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA Pan9X	Luka Mikrutavg 89.9¢	$336.75	$352.13	+$15.38	50% 2155-2179 (4334)
EF efntrick	Luka Mikrutavg 92.4¢	$228.81	$232.72	+$3.91	45% 110-134 (244)
GA Gaditima	Luka Mikrutavg 92¢	$99.71	$101.87	+$2.17	49% 380-398 (778)
VeryLucky888<$100	Luka Mikrutavg 92.2¢	$55.3	$37.6	+$1.1	53% 1840-1607 (3447)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Luka Mikrutavg 94¢	$18.27	$18.27	+$0	62% 263-160 (423)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Iiro Vasaavg 7¢	$11.52	$11.52	+$0	46% 607-722 (1329)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Iiro Vasaavg 48.5¢	$50	$7.22	-$42.78	37% 1308-2191 (3499)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Luka Mikrutavg 91¢	$4.55	$4.7	+$0.15	43% 845-1130 (1975)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Iiro Vasaavg 16¢	$5.6	$2.45	-$3.15	38% 1314-2159 (3473)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Iiro Vasaavg 18¢	$2.16	$0.84	-$1.32	38% 1316-2144 (3460)

Pan9X

Luka Mikrut

Invested

$336.75

Value

$352.13

PnL

+$15.38

Record

50%

2155-2179 (4334)

efntrick

Luka Mikrut

Invested

$228.81

Value

$232.72

PnL

+$3.91

Record

45%

110-134 (244)

Gaditima

Luka Mikrut

Invested

$99.71

Value

$101.87

PnL

+$2.17

Record

49%

380-398 (778)

VeryLucky888<$100

Luka Mikrut

Invested

$55.3

Value

$37.6

PnL

+$1.1

Record

53%

1840-1607 (3447)

thatsabing0<$100

Luka Mikrut

Invested

$18.27

Value

$18.27

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

263-160 (423)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Iiro Vasa

Invested

$11.52

Value

$11.52

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

607-722 (1329)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Iiro Vasa

Invested

$50

Value

$7.22

PnL

-$42.78

Record

37%

1308-2191 (3499)

ameisgoat11<$100

Luka Mikrut

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.15

Record

43%

845-1130 (1975)

VenusianCTR<$100

Iiro Vasa

Invested

$5.6

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$3.15

Record

38%

1314-2159 (3473)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Iiro Vasa

Invested

$2.16

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$1.32

Record

38%

1316-2144 (3460)

Research grade

NeutralLuka Mikrut at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Luka Mikrut

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Luka Mikrut. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLuka Mikrut 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedLuka Mikrut 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Luka Mikrut 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Luka Mikrut wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.