Swiss Indoors Basel: Alex Michelsen vs Botic van de Zandschulp

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Alex Michelsen (50%) · Alex Michelsen at 60¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Alex Michelsen60¢Botic van de Zandschulp40¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alex Michelsen

Consensus Traders

Alex Michelsen 50%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$82.68

Smart Money Entry

61.5¢ → 60¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlex Michelsen at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Michelsen

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Alex Michelsen60%

Botic van de Zandschulp40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alex Michelsen2 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares6,893

Combined PnL-$83.3

Botic van de Zandschulp2 traders

Total Value$24.74

Total Shares62

Combined PnL+$0.62

Alex Michelsen — 50%Botic van de Zandschulp — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Alex Michelsenavg 61.5¢	$4.5K	$4.1K	-$81.2	58% 40382-29168 (69550)
0xheavy888<$100	Alex Michelsenavg 63¢	$84	$50.82	-$2.1	56% 6840-5478 (12318)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Botic van de Zandschulpavg 39¢	$14.82	$15.2	+$0.38	58% 27869-20504 (48373)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Botic van de Zandschulpavg 39¢	$9.3	$9.54	+$0.24	52% 13478-12328 (25806)

VeryLucky888

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$4,509.59

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$81.2

Record

58%

40382-29168 (69550)

0xheavy888<$100

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$84

Value

$50.82

PnL

-$2.1

Record

56%

6840-5478 (12318)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Botic van de Zandschulp

Invested

$14.82

Value

$15.2

PnL

+$0.38

Record

58%

27869-20504 (48373)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Botic van de Zandschulp

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.54

PnL

+$0.24

Record

52%

13478-12328 (25806)

Research grade

NeutralAlex Michelsen at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Michelsen

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alex Michelsen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.