Swiss Indoors Basel: Alex Michelsen vs Arthur Fils
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Arthur Fils (100%) · Arthur Fils at 66¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 5
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Research candidate
Arthur Fils
5
Arthur Fils 100%
$5.1K
$32.73
65.9¢ → 65.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateArthur Fils at 66%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Arthur Fils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Arthur Filsavg 65.6¢ | $4.5K | $3.5K | +$40.73 | 58% 41203-29875 (71078) |
RR rrooster | Arthur Filsavg 66¢ | $990 | $990 | +$0 | 63% 1324-786 (2110) |
YO yohan75 | Arthur Filsavg 67¢ | $536 | $528 | -$8 | 53% 269-237 (506) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Arthur Filsavg 66¢ | $98.34 | $98.34 | +$0 | 55% 6989-5609 (12598) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Arthur Filsavg 66¢ | $3.3 | $3.3 | +$0 | 47% 2160-2464 (4624) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$4,539.95
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$40.73
Record
58%
41203-29875 (71078)
Invested
$990
Value
$990
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
1324-786 (2110)
Invested
$536
Value
$528
PnL
-$8
Record
53%
269-237 (506)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$98.34
Value
$98.34
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
6989-5609 (12598)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$3.3
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2160-2464 (4624)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.