Guayaquil: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Alex Hernandez

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Alex Hernandez (75%) · Alex Hernandez at 91¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 4

Alvaro Guillen Meza10¢Alex Hernandez90¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alex Hernandez

Consensus Traders

Alex Hernandez 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.5K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 90.5¢

+24% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlex Hernandez at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Hernandez

9 of 12 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Alvaro Guillen Meza10%

Alex Hernandez91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alex Hernandez9 traders

Total Value$32.8K

Total Shares37,183

Combined PnL+$2.9K

Alvaro Guillen Meza3 traders

Total Value$814.96

Total Shares2,305

Combined PnL-$281.01

Alex Hernandez — 75%Alvaro Guillen Meza — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Alex Hernandezavg 84.6¢	$24.3K	$24.0K	-$315.42	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
RN1	Alex Hernandezavg 39¢	$2.5K	$4.9K	+$2.4K	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
HO HomeRunHazard	Alex Hernandezavg 45.1¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$598.01	54% 16875-14147 (31022)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Alex Hernandezavg 54.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$52.93	52% 13570-12415 (25985)
└ Alex Hernandez leg	Alex Hernandezavg 54.5¢	$797.17	$1.3K	+$497.59
└ Alvaro Guillen Meza leg	Alvaro Guillen Mezaavg 26.7¢	$781.6	$336.95	-$444.65
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Alvaro Guillen Mezaavg 46.4¢	$988.9	$713.55	-$275.35	51% 1291-1227 (2518)
GH ghostorder	Alex Hernandezavg 39¢	$565.5	$609	+$43.5	62% 4273-2636 (6909)
TH thestingsnake	Alex Hernandezavg 65.9¢	$408.25	$539.85	+$136.47	60% 3972-2673 (6645)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Alvaro Guillen Mezaavg 36.6¢	$276.41	$193.77	-$32.59	54% 634-551 (1185)
└ Alex Hernandez leg	Alex Hernandezavg 42.7¢	$66.76	$138.26	+$86.89
└ Alvaro Guillen Meza leg	Alvaro Guillen Mezaavg 36.6¢	$176.49	$55.51	-$119.48
BI BillBenter2026	Alex Hernandezavg 72.8¢	$120.43	$109.8	-$8.68	58% 18416-13508 (31924)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Alvaro Guillen Mezaavg 61.2¢	$104.76	$99.25	-$5.51	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
HRTrading<$100	Alex Hernandezavg 60.9¢	$34.04	$43.61	+$9.57	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Alex Hernandezavg 38¢	$22.36	$24.69	+$2.33	62% 13617-8456 (22073)
0xheavy888<$100	Alex Hernandezavg 37¢	$11.1	$12.6	+$1.5	56% 6917-5536 (12453)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Alvaro Guillen Mezaavg 62¢	$2.31	$2.16	-$0.15	58% 40796-29505 (70301)

UpTheBlues

Alex Hernandez

Invested

$24,318.51

Value

$24.0K

PnL

-$315.42

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

RN1

Alex Hernandez

Invested

$2,500.02

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

HomeRunHazard

Alex Hernandez

Invested

$1,993.49

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$598.01

Record

54%

16875-14147 (31022)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Alex Hernandez

Invested

$1,578.77

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$52.93

Record

52%

13570-12415 (25985)

Both legs:

Alex Hernandez$797.1754.5¢+$497.59

Alvaro Guillen Meza$781.626.7¢-$444.65

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Alvaro Guillen Meza

Invested

$988.9

Value

$713.55

PnL

-$275.35

Record

51%

1291-1227 (2518)

ghostorder

Alex Hernandez

Invested

$565.5

Value

$609

PnL

+$43.5

Record

62%

4273-2636 (6909)

thestingsnake

Alex Hernandez

Invested

$408.25

Value

$539.85

PnL

+$136.47

Record

60%

3972-2673 (6645)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Alvaro Guillen Meza

Invested

$276.41

Value

$193.77

PnL

-$32.59

Record

54%

634-551 (1185)

Both legs:

Alex Hernandez$66.7642.7¢+$86.89

Alvaro Guillen Meza$176.4936.6¢-$119.48

BillBenter2026

Alex Hernandez

Invested

$120.43

Value

$109.8

PnL

-$8.68

Record

58%

18416-13508 (31924)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Alvaro Guillen Meza

Invested

$104.76

Value

$99.25

PnL

-$5.51

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

HRTrading<$100

Alex Hernandez

Invested

$34.04

Value

$43.61

PnL

+$9.57

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Lilybaeum<$100

Alex Hernandez

Invested

$22.36

Value

$24.69

PnL

+$2.33

Record

62%

13617-8456 (22073)

0xheavy888<$100

Alex Hernandez

Invested

$11.1

Value

$12.6

PnL

+$1.5

Record

56%

6917-5536 (12453)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Alvaro Guillen Meza

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$0.15

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

Research grade

NeutralAlex Hernandez at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Hernandez

9 of 12 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alex Hernandez wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.