Erste Bank Open: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino

9 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Adrian Mannarino (47%) · Adrian Mannarino at 51¢ · $153K held · ends Nov 4

Jakub Mensik50¢Adrian Mannarino50¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Adrian Mannarino

Consensus Traders

Adrian Mannarino 47%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$152.5K

Combined PnL

$4.2K

Smart Money Entry

47¢ → 50.5¢

+8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralAdrian Mannarino at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Adrian Mannarino

9 of 19 top traders (47%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jakub Mensik50%

Adrian Mannarino51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Adrian Mannarino9 traders

Total Value$55.6K

Total Shares104,362

Combined PnL+$4.5K

Jakub Mensik10 traders

Total Value$46.0K

Total Shares86,138

Combined PnL-$298.79

Adrian Mannarino — 47%Jakub Mensik — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Adrian Mannarinoavg 48.4¢	$38.1K	$41.4K	+$3.2K	49% 18605-19035 (37640)
KK kkookkooCTR	Jakub Mensikavg 53.5¢	$30.0K	$28.3K	$-1.7K	51% 581-566 (1147)
RN1ARB<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 49.9¢	$28.1K	$27.7K	-$336.09	54% 55721-47803 (103524)
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 49.9¢	$14.4K	$14.3K	-$129.13
└ Jakub Mensik leg	Jakub Mensikavg 51.3¢	$13.7K	$13.5K	-$206.97
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 32.5¢	$11.9K	$14.6K	+$2.6K	54% 16868-14145 (31013)
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 32.5¢	$6.3K	$9.6K	+$3.3K
└ Jakub Mensik leg	Jakub Mensikavg 57.5¢	$5.7K	$5.0K	-$688.41
UP UpTheBlues	Adrian Mannarinoavg 40¢	$6.9K	$8.1K	+$1.2K	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
RE redvinnyCTR	Jakub Mensikavg 89.7¢	$7.0K	$6.8K	-$172.2	75% 1470-494 (1964)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR	Jakub Mensikavg 44¢	$6.0K	$6.6K	+$609.5	52% 107-100 (207)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Jakub Mensikavg 55.7¢	$6.3K	$6.1K	-$208.93	52% 13563-12405 (25968)
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 48.4¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$265.16
└ Jakub Mensik leg	Jakub Mensikavg 55.7¢	$3.2K	$2.7K	-$474.09
LU LuzzzerCTR	Jakub Mensikavg 44.1¢	$5.4K	$3.1K	+$970.89	45% 103-127 (230)
GH ghostorder	Adrian Mannarinoavg 46.3¢	$3.2K	$2.2K	+$121.73	62% 4267-2634 (6901)
SC SchruteBucks	Adrian Mannarinoavg 51¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$17.71	56% 1811-1413 (3224)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Jakub Mensikavg 82.5¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$285.85	51% 1282-1219 (2501)
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 37.8¢	$555.3	$815.85	+$260.55
└ Jakub Mensik leg	Jakub Mensikavg 82.5¢	$1.2K	$640.1	-$546.4
TH thestingsnake	Adrian Mannarinoavg 45.3¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	+$34.99	60% 3967-2670 (6637)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 35.7¢	$3.3K	$998.65	-$308.3	54% 630-547 (1177)
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 35.7¢	$486.67	$688.37	+$328.91
└ Jakub Mensik leg	Jakub Mensikavg 71.4¢	$447.51	$310.29	-$637.2
0X 0x1111111111	Adrian Mannarinoavg 40.5¢	$689.5	$860.39	+$170.89	61% 1722-1084 (2806)
IL IlliascaCTR	Jakub Mensikavg 82¢	$500	$500	+$0	66% 259-135 (394)
PA Paul973973CTR	Jakub Mensikavg 83¢	$500	$496.99	-$3.01	89% 886-110 (996)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Adrian Mannarinoavg 50¢	$434.78	$160.87	-$273.91	44% 388-486 (874)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Jakub Mensikavg 84.8¢	$162.88	$113.8	-$43.72	58% 18402-13504 (31906)
└ Jakub Mensik leg	Jakub Mensikavg 84.8¢	$113.59	$66.33	-$41.9
└ Adrian Mannarino leg	Adrian Mannarinoavg 52.4¢	$49.29	$47.47	-$1.82
AS astapzippoCTR<$100	Jakub Mensikavg 45.5¢	$91	$91	+$0	56% 2125-1664 (3789)
poshposhCTR<$100	Jakub Mensikavg 50¢	$75	$66.75	-$8.25	60% 9374-6357 (15731)
VeryLucky888CTR	Jakub Mensikavg 80¢	$2.0K	$55.37	-$4.71	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
tradecraft<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 9.1¢	$22.44	$20.91	-$1.53	52% 5875-5510 (11385)
US User7429CTR<$100	Jakub Mensikavg 70¢	$20.3	$19.87	-$0.43	55% 8103-6544 (14647)
HRTrading<$100	Adrian Mannarinoavg 48¢	$1.2	$1.25	+$0.05	53% 3056-2718 (5774)

omnibus-076daa

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$38,125.81

Value

$41.4K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

49%

18605-19035 (37640)

kkookkooCTR

Jakub Mensik

Invested

$30,000

Value

$28.3K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

51%

581-566 (1147)

RN1ARB<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$28,062.69

Value

$27.7K

PnL

-$336.09

Record

54%

55721-47803 (103524)

Both legs:

Adrian Mannarino$14,404.5649.9¢-$129.13

Jakub Mensik$13,658.1251.3¢-$206.97

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$11,949.11

Value

$14.6K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

54%

16868-14145 (31013)

Both legs:

Adrian Mannarino$6,286.0132.5¢+$3.3K

Jakub Mensik$5,663.157.5¢-$688.41

UpTheBlues

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$6,875.04

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

redvinnyCTR

Jakub Mensik

Invested

$6,977.08

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$172.2

Record

75%

1470-494 (1964)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR

Jakub Mensik

Invested

$5,968.83

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$609.5

Record

52%

107-100 (207)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Jakub Mensik

Invested

$6,315.11

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$208.93

Record

52%

13563-12405 (25968)

Both legs:

Adrian Mannarino$3,101.948.4¢+$265.16

Jakub Mensik$3,213.2155.7¢-$474.09

LuzzzerCTR

Jakub Mensik

Invested

$5,352.24

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$970.89

Record

45%

103-127 (230)

ghostorder

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$3,197.87

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$121.73

Record

62%

4267-2634 (6901)

SchruteBucks

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$1,797.65

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$17.71

Record

56%

1811-1413 (3224)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Jakub Mensik

Invested

$1,741.8

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$285.85

Record

51%

1282-1219 (2501)

Both legs:

Adrian Mannarino$555.337.8¢+$260.55

Jakub Mensik$1,186.582.5¢-$546.4

thestingsnake

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$1,540.15

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$34.99

Record

60%

3967-2670 (6637)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$3,340.08

Value

$998.65

PnL

-$308.3

Record

54%

630-547 (1177)

Both legs:

Adrian Mannarino$486.6735.7¢+$328.91

Jakub Mensik$447.5171.4¢-$637.2

0x1111111111

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$689.5

Value

$860.39

PnL

+$170.89

Record

61%

1722-1084 (2806)

IlliascaCTR

Jakub Mensik

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

259-135 (394)

Paul973973CTR

Jakub Mensik

Invested

$500

Value

$496.99

PnL

-$3.01

Record

89%

886-110 (996)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$434.78

Value

$160.87

PnL

-$273.91

Record

44%

388-486 (874)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Jakub Mensik

Invested

$162.88

Value

$113.8

PnL

-$43.72

Record

58%

18402-13504 (31906)

Both legs:

Jakub Mensik$113.5984.8¢-$41.9

Adrian Mannarino$49.2952.4¢-$1.82

astapzippoCTR<$100

Jakub Mensik

Invested

$91

Value

$91

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2125-1664 (3789)

poshposhCTR<$100

Jakub Mensik

Invested

$75

Value

$66.75

PnL

-$8.25

Record

60%

9374-6357 (15731)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jakub Mensik

Invested

$1,963.28

Value

$55.37

PnL

-$4.71

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

tradecraft<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$22.44

Value

$20.91

PnL

-$1.53

Record

52%

5875-5510 (11385)

User7429CTR<$100

Jakub Mensik

Invested

$20.3

Value

$19.87

PnL

-$0.43

Record

55%

8103-6544 (14647)

HRTrading<$100

Adrian Mannarino

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

Research grade

NeutralAdrian Mannarino at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Adrian Mannarino

9 of 19 top traders (47%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Adrian Mannarino wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.