Charlottesville: Nicolas Mejia vs Murphy Cassone
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Murphy Cassone (25%) · Murphy Cassone at 57¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 9
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Neutral
Murphy Cassone
4
Murphy Cassone 25%
$1.3K
$7.19
Research grade
NeutralMurphy Cassone at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | Murphy Cassoneavg 56.5¢ | $2.0K | $1.1K | +$10.46 | 50% 495-491 (986) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Nicolas Mejiaavg 43¢ | $87.1 | $87.15 | +$0.04 | 47% 12988-14555 (27543) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Nicolas Mejiaavg 44.5¢ | $54.28 | $52.46 | -$1.82 | 58% 48507-34663 (83170) |
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100 | Nicolas Mejiaavg 48.3¢ | $28.32 | $12.18 | -$1.49 | 53% 8072-7284 (15356) |
Invested
$1,977.77
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$10.46
Record
50%
495-491 (986)
Invested
$87.1
Value
$87.15
PnL
+$0.04
Record
47%
12988-14555 (27543)
Invested
$54.28
Value
$52.46
PnL
-$1.82
Record
58%
48507-34663 (83170)
Invested
$28.32
Value
$12.18
PnL
-$1.49
Record
53%
8072-7284 (15356)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.