Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Daniil Medvedev, while the market favors Carlos Alcaraz (69%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Erste Bank Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Daniil Medvedev (67%) · Daniil Medvedev at 31¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Daniil Medvedev
3
Daniil Medvedev 67%
1 arb excluded
$5.5K
-$248.95
32.8¢ → 31¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralDaniil Medvedev at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Carlos Alcaraz 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Daniil Medvedev. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Daniil Medvedevavg 33¢ | $4.2K | $3.9K | -$251.96 | 74% 6672-2394 (9066) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Carlos Alcarazavg 66¢ | $655.49 | $665.42 | +$4.97 | 65% 1707-928 (2635) |
LI LilybaeumCTR | Daniil Medvedevavg 31.1¢ | $495.72 | $493.76 | -$1.95 | 62% 13706-8571 (22277) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Carlos Alcarazavg 65.7¢ | $854.08 | $392.84 | +$6.17 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
| └ Carlos Alcaraz leg | Carlos Alcarazavg 65.7¢ | $266.92 | $272.16 | +$12.92 | |
| └ Daniil Medvedev leg | Daniil Medvedevavg 33¢ | $128.46 | $120.67 | -$6.75 |
Invested
$4,157.33
Value
$3.9K
PnL
-$251.96
Record
74%
6672-2394 (9066)
Invested
$655.49
Value
$665.42
PnL
+$4.97
Record
65%
1707-928 (2635)
Invested
$495.72
Value
$493.76
PnL
-$1.95
Record
62%
13706-8571 (22277)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$854.08
Value
$392.84
PnL
+$6.17
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.