Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Maks Kasnikowski, while the market favors Aidan Mayo (73%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Sioux Falls: Aidan Mayo vs Maks Kasnikowski

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Maks Kasnikowski (40%) · Maks Kasnikowski at 28¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Aidan Mayo73¢Maks Kasnikowski27¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Maks Kasnikowski

Consensus Traders

Maks Kasnikowski 40%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$488.76

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 27.5¢

-48% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidMaks Kasnikowski at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maks Kasnikowski

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Aidan Mayo 73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Aidan Mayo73%

Maks Kasnikowski28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aidan Mayo6 traders

Total Value$790.74

Total Shares1,749

Combined PnL-$43.63

Maks Kasnikowski4 traders

Total Value$591.91

Total Shares1,934

Combined PnL-$445.14

Aidan Mayo — 60%Maks Kasnikowski — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Aidan Mayoavg 39¢	$549.5	$542.46	-$7.04	38% 477-787 (1264)
VeryLucky888CTR	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 61¢	$887.52	$421.03	-$458.92	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
1L 1lovejump	Aidan Mayoavg 75¢	$227.22	$195.16	-$32.06	54% 630-547 (1177)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 28.4¢	$126.06	$140.01	+$13.95	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 38¢	$29.57	$30.74	+$1.17	62% 13614-8455 (22069)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 61.9¢	$27.93	$27.3	-$0.63	56% 6915-5529 (12444)
TRCM<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 51¢	$16.03	$12.73	-$3.3	55% 3915-3147 (7062)
PA pauleta23<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 53¢	$10	$7.64	-$2.36	67% 23108-11512 (34620)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Maks Kasnikowskiavg 24¢	$3.12	$3.58	+$0.46	60% 3967-2670 (6637)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 40¢	$2.04	$2.01	-$0.03	49% 18605-19035 (37640)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$549.5

Value

$542.46

PnL

-$7.04

Record

38%

477-787 (1264)

VeryLucky888CTR

Maks Kasnikowski

Invested

$887.52

Value

$421.03

PnL

-$458.92

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

1lovejump

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$227.22

Value

$195.16

PnL

-$32.06

Record

54%

630-547 (1177)

UpTheBluesCTR

Maks Kasnikowski

Invested

$126.06

Value

$140.01

PnL

+$13.95

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

Lilybaeum<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$29.57

Value

$30.74

PnL

+$1.17

Record

62%

13614-8455 (22069)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Maks Kasnikowski

Invested

$27.93

Value

$27.3

PnL

-$0.63

Record

56%

6915-5529 (12444)

TRCM<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$16.03

Value

$12.73

PnL

-$3.3

Record

55%

3915-3147 (7062)

pauleta23<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$10

Value

$7.64

PnL

-$2.36

Record

67%

23108-11512 (34620)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Maks Kasnikowski

Invested

$3.12

Value

$3.58

PnL

+$0.46

Record

60%

3967-2670 (6637)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$2.04

Value

$2.01

PnL

-$0.03

Record

49%

18605-19035 (37640)

Research grade

AvoidMaks Kasnikowski at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Maks Kasnikowski

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Aidan Mayo 73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maks Kasnikowski wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.