Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Duncan Chan, while the market favors Aidan Mayo (70%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Charlottesville: Aidan Mayo vs Duncan Chan
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Duncan Chan (100%) · Duncan Chan at 30¢ · $359 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Duncan Chan
3
Duncan Chan 100%
$359.46
-$13.24
30.3¢ → 30¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDuncan Chan at 30%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Aidan Mayo 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA Bagwell306CTR | Duncan Chanavg 30¢ | $210 | $203 | -$7 | 58% 4067-2890 (6957) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Duncan Chanavg 30.4¢ | $124.74 | $86.94 | -$1.8 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Duncan Chanavg 30.9¢ | $73.96 | $69.52 | -$4.44 | 72% 6831-2625 (9456) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.