Sioux Falls: Aidan Mayo vs Hynek Barton

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Aidan Mayo (36%) · Aidan Mayo at 100¢ · $49K held · ends Nov 2

Aidan Mayo>99¢Hynek Barton<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aidan Mayo

Consensus Traders

Aidan Mayo 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$49.4K

Combined PnL

-$40

Smart Money Entry

94.7¢ → 100¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralAidan Mayo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aidan Mayo

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Aidan Mayo100%

Hynek Barton0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aidan Mayo4 traders

Total Value$41.0K

Total Shares43,684

Combined PnL-$383.51

Hynek Barton7 traders

Total Value$930.12

Total Shares4,201

Combined PnL+$343.51

Aidan Mayo — 36%Hynek Barton — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU BunCaCham	Aidan Mayoavg 99.9¢	$38.0K	$38.1K	+$19.04	98% 2548-65 (2613)
RN1ARB<$100	Hynek Bartonavg 36.2¢	$9.2K	$5.5K	$-3.6K	54% 55325-47376 (102701)
└ Aidan Mayo leg	Aidan Mayoavg 87¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$55.23
└ Hynek Barton leg	Hynek Bartonavg 36.2¢	$6.0K	$2.4K	$-3.6K
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Aidan Mayoavg 59.5¢	$3.2K	$2.8K	-$429.9	37% 468-783 (1251)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 76.5¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$122.11	59% 44263-30624 (74887)
└ Aidan Mayo leg	Aidan Mayoavg 76.5¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$124.5
└ Hynek Barton leg	Hynek Bartonavg 16.6¢	$459.02	$456.62	-$2.4
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Hynek Bartonavg 12.7¢	$503.55	$849.35	+$345.8	54% 16740-14044 (30784)
1L 1lovejump	Aidan Mayoavg 62¢	$109.75	$98.63	+$30.87	53% 580-515 (1095)
poshposhCTR<$100	Hynek Bartonavg 36¢	$61.44	$69.12	+$7.68	60% 9092-6016 (15108)
VeryLucky888<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 57¢	$57.29	$53.78	-$3.52	58% 40396-29173 (69569)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Hynek Bartonavg 31.4¢	$29.57	$7.43	-$9.94	48% 3615-3873 (7488)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Hynek Bartonavg 17¢	$1.7	$1.65	-$0.05	52% 5820-5438 (11258)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Hynek Bartonavg 13¢	$1.3	$1.35	+$0.05	60% 3903-2647 (6550)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Hynek Bartonavg 15¢	$1.05	$1.02	-$0.04	54% 2570-2206 (4776)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Hynek Bartonavg 17¢	$0.2	$0.21	+$0.01	52% 13483-12339 (25822)

BunCaCham

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$38,043.77

Value

$38.1K

PnL

+$19.04

Record

98%

2548-65 (2613)

RN1ARB<$100

Hynek Barton

Invested

$9,178.48

Value

$5.5K

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

54%

55325-47376 (102701)

Both legs:

Aidan Mayo$3,203.3187¢-$55.23

Hynek Barton$5,975.1636.2¢$-3.6K

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$3,200

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$429.9

Record

37%

468-783 (1251)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$1,821.07

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$122.11

Record

59%

44263-30624 (74887)

Both legs:

Aidan Mayo$1,362.0576.5¢+$124.5

Hynek Barton$459.0216.6¢-$2.4

HomeRunHazardCTR

Hynek Barton

Invested

$503.55

Value

$849.35

PnL

+$345.8

Record

54%

16740-14044 (30784)

1lovejump

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$109.75

Value

$98.63

PnL

+$30.87

Record

53%

580-515 (1095)

poshposhCTR<$100

Hynek Barton

Invested

$61.44

Value

$69.12

PnL

+$7.68

Record

60%

9092-6016 (15108)

VeryLucky888<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$57.29

Value

$53.78

PnL

-$3.52

Record

58%

40396-29173 (69569)

efntrickCTR<$100

Hynek Barton

Invested

$29.57

Value

$7.43

PnL

-$9.94

Record

48%

3615-3873 (7488)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Hynek Barton

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

5820-5438 (11258)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Hynek Barton

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.05

Record

60%

3903-2647 (6550)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Hynek Barton

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.04

Record

54%

2570-2206 (4776)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Hynek Barton

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.21

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

13483-12339 (25822)

Research grade

NeutralAidan Mayo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Aidan Mayo

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aidan Mayo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.