Matsuyama: Ryuki Matsuda vs Max Schoenhaus
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Max Schoenhaus (67%) · Max Schoenhaus at 83¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Max Schoenhaus
6
Max Schoenhaus 67%
$1.1K
-$5.86
82.1¢ → 82.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralMax Schoenhaus at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Max Schoenhaus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Max Schoenhausavg 82.1¢ | $795.38 | $794.58 | -$0.8 | 57% 70-52 (122) |
VE VenusianCTR | Ryuki Matsudaavg 18¢ | $190.47 | $185.23 | -$5.24 | 24% 184-596 (780) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Max Schoenhausavg 82¢ | $65.6 | $50.77 | +$0.18 | 47% 171-192 (363) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Max Schoenhausavg 82¢ | $31.98 | $31.98 | -$0 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Ryuki Matsudaavg 18¢ | $4.42 | $4.42 | +$0 | 23% 176-590 (766) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Max Schoenhausavg 82¢ | $4.1 | $4.1 | +$0 | 20% 113-461 (574) |
0xheavy888Invested
$795.38
Value
$794.58
PnL
-$0.8
Record
57%
70-52 (122)
Invested
$190.47
Value
$185.23
PnL
-$5.24
Record
24%
184-596 (780)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$65.6
Value
$50.77
PnL
+$0.18
Record
47%
171-192 (363)
Invested
$31.98
Value
$31.98
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
Invested
$4.42
Value
$4.42
PnL
+$0
Record
23%
176-590 (766)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$4.1
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
113-461 (574)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.