Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Andrej Martin, while the market favors Eero Vasa (55%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Bratislava 2: Andrej Martin vs Eero Vasa
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Andrej Martin (75%) · Andrej Martin at 45¢ · $409 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Andrej Martin
4
Andrej Martin 75%
$409.37
-$8.91
46.6¢ → 45¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralAndrej Martin at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Eero Vasa 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Andrej Martinavg 45.9¢ | $276.72 | $271.07 | -$5.65 | 72% 6830-2625 (9455) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Andrej Martinavg 48.1¢ | $122.51 | $114.51 | -$7.99 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Andrej Martinavg 46¢ | $276 | $21.03 | +$4.8 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Eero Vasaavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $2.75 | -$0.08 | 52% 7503-6793 (14296) |
Invested
$276.72
Value
$271.07
PnL
-$5.65
Record
72%
6830-2625 (9455)
Invested
$122.51
Value
$114.51
PnL
-$7.99
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$276
Value
$21.03
PnL
+$4.8
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.75
PnL
-$0.08
Record
52%
7503-6793 (14296)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.