Hersonissos 3: Jack Loge vs Odysseas Geladaris

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Jack Loge (67%) · Jack Loge at 92¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 16

Jack Loge92¢Odysseas Geladaris8¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jack Loge

Consensus Traders

Jack Loge 67%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$89.79

Smart Money Entry

87.1¢ → 91.5¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralJack Loge at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jack Loge

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jack Loge92%

Odysseas Geladaris9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jack Loge8 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,576

Combined PnL+$112.41

Odysseas Geladaris4 traders

Total Value$204.26

Total Shares1,684

Combined PnL-$22.62

Jack Loge — 67%Odysseas Geladaris — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Jack Logeavg 87.6¢	$841.16	$878.53	+$37.38	46% 2665-3073 (5738)
LI LightParadox	Jack Logeavg 88¢	$544.53	$553.73	+$9.2	46% 2566-3072 (5638)
EU Eulhunter	Jack Logeavg 87.6¢	$530.15	$553.58	+$23.43	53% 6834-5981 (12815)
TH thestingsnake	Jack Logeavg 86¢	$516.55	$537.53	+$20.98	60% 4652-3138 (7790)
VE Venusian	Jack Logeavg 85.7¢	$343.24	$358.34	+$15.1	45% 2644-3186 (5830)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Odysseas Geladarisavg 13.9¢	$188.29	$169.52	-$18.77	57% 217-162 (379)
MA MadridTime	Jack Logeavg 84.7¢	$151.91	$154.9	+$2.99	45% 2577-3112 (5689)
EF efntrick	Jack Logeavg 85¢	$113.51	$115.76	+$2.24	49% 3734-3958 (7692)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Jack Logeavg 90.5¢	$94.97	$96.08	+$1.1	56% 1990-1540 (3530)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Odysseas Geladarisavg 12.2¢	$30.04	$25.95	-$4.09	46% 33752-39417 (73169)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Odysseas Geladarisavg 10.6¢	$6.99	$6.92	-$0.06	52% 6189-5710 (11899)
TRCMCTR<$100	Odysseas Geladarisavg 10.4¢	$1.57	$1.88	+$0.31	55% 4135-3331 (7466)

Limousin

Jack Loge

Invested

$841.16

Value

$878.53

PnL

+$37.38

Record

46%

2665-3073 (5738)

LightParadox

Jack Loge

Invested

$544.53

Value

$553.73

PnL

+$9.2

Record

46%

2566-3072 (5638)

Eulhunter

Jack Loge

Invested

$530.15

Value

$553.58

PnL

+$23.43

Record

53%

6834-5981 (12815)

thestingsnake

Jack Loge

Invested

$516.55

Value

$537.53

PnL

+$20.98

Record

60%

4652-3138 (7790)

Venusian

Jack Loge

Invested

$343.24

Value

$358.34

PnL

+$15.1

Record

45%

2644-3186 (5830)

thirdt1meCTR

Odysseas Geladaris

Invested

$188.29

Value

$169.52

PnL

-$18.77

Record

57%

217-162 (379)

MadridTime

Jack Loge

Invested

$151.91

Value

$154.9

PnL

+$2.99

Record

45%

2577-3112 (5689)

efntrick

Jack Loge

Invested

$113.51

Value

$115.76

PnL

+$2.24

Record

49%

3734-3958 (7692)

SchruteBucks<$100

Jack Loge

Invested

$94.97

Value

$96.08

PnL

+$1.1

Record

56%

1990-1540 (3530)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Odysseas Geladaris

Invested

$30.04

Value

$25.95

PnL

-$4.09

Record

46%

33752-39417 (73169)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Odysseas Geladaris

Invested

$6.99

Value

$6.92

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

6189-5710 (11899)

TRCMCTR<$100

Odysseas Geladaris

Invested

$1.57

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$0.31

Record

55%

4135-3331 (7466)

Research grade

NeutralJack Loge at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jack Loge

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jack Loge wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.