Swiss Indoors Basel: Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin Vacherot
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Jiri Lehecka (75%) · Jiri Lehecka at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8
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Neutral
Jiri Lehecka
4
Jiri Lehecka 75%
$2.4K
-$5.19
62.7¢ → 63.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralJiri Lehecka at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Jiri Leheckaavg 62.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$9.96 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR | Valentin Vacherotavg 37.8¢ | $512.6 | $502.34 | -$17.04 | 45% 400-497 (897) |
 0xheavy888 | Jiri Leheckaavg 63¢ | $383.99 | $243.83 | +$1.92 | 55% 7313-5880 (13193) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Jiri Leheckaavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $3.15 | -$0.03 | 52% 7485-6781 (14266) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,637.68
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$9.96
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
Invested
$512.6
Value
$502.34
PnL
-$17.04
Record
45%
400-497 (897)
0xheavy888Invested
$383.99
Value
$243.83
PnL
+$1.92
Record
55%
7313-5880 (13193)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.15
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
7485-6781 (14266)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.