Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jan-Lennard Struff, while the market favors Jiri Lehecka (66%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Swiss Indoors Basel: Jiri Lehecka vs Jan-Lennard Struff
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Jan-Lennard Struff (56%) · Jan-Lennard Struff at 35¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Jan-Lennard Struff
9
Jan-Lennard Struff 56%
$4.9K
-$34.44
34¢ → 34.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralJan-Lennard Struff at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Jiri Lehecka 66%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR | Jan-Lennard Struffavg 34¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | -$40 | 51% 113-108 (221) |
 VeryLucky888 | Jiri Leheckaavg 66¢ | $990 | $982.5 | -$7.5 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
MR MrClaude11CTR | Jan-Lennard Struffavg 34¢ | $884.87 | $897.89 | +$13.01 | 52% 239-219 (458) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR | Jan-Lennard Struffavg 33¢ | $111.87 | $113.57 | +$1.7 | 50% 3869-3825 (7694) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Jiri Leheckaavg 66¢ | $73.14 | $73.7 | +$0.55 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Jan-Lennard Struffavg 34¢ | $70.78 | $69.74 | -$1.04 | 62% 13706-8571 (22277) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Jan-Lennard Struffavg 35¢ | $27.46 | $26.28 | -$1.18 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Jiri Leheckaavg 66¢ | $4.92 | $4.95 | +$0.04 | 50% 24919-24613 (49532) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Jiri Leheckaavg 66¢ | $3.3 | $3.28 | -$0.02 | 48% 2389-2622 (5011) |
Invested
$2,720
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$40
Record
51%
113-108 (221)
VeryLucky888Invested
$990
Value
$982.5
PnL
-$7.5
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
Invested
$884.87
Value
$897.89
PnL
+$13.01
Record
52%
239-219 (458)
Invested
$111.87
Value
$113.57
PnL
+$1.7
Record
50%
3869-3825 (7694)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$73.14
Value
$73.7
PnL
+$0.55
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Invested
$70.78
Value
$69.74
PnL
-$1.04
Record
62%
13706-8571 (22277)
Invested
$27.46
Value
$26.28
PnL
-$1.18
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
24919-24613 (49532)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$3.28
PnL
-$0.02
Record
48%
2389-2622 (5011)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516
CTRJan-Lennard Struff — $2.7K
VeryLucky888
Jiri Lehecka — $982.5
MrClaude11
CTRJan-Lennard Struff — $897.89
NatoAlfista
CTRJan-Lennard Struff — $113.57
0xheavy888
Jiri Lehecka — $73.7
Lilybaeum
CTRJan-Lennard Struff — $69.74
LeLynxMalynx
CTRJan-Lennard Struff — $26.28
sentrio
Jiri Lehecka — $4.95
ameisgoat11
Jiri Lehecka — $3.28