Sioux Falls: Timo Legout vs Valentin Royer

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Valentin Royer (58%) · Valentin Royer at 67¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 3

Timo Legout34¢Valentin Royer66¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Valentin Royer

Consensus Traders

Valentin Royer 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 66.5¢

-14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralValentin Royer at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Valentin Royer

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Timo Legout34%

Valentin Royer67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Timo Legout5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares7,800

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Valentin Royer7 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares5,668

Combined PnL-$37.33

Timo Legout — 42%Valentin Royer — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Timo Legoutavg 20¢	$1.5K	$2.8K	+$1.3K	38% 472-784 (1256)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Valentin Royeravg 80¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$105.35	52% 13520-12365 (25885)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Valentin Royeravg 76¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$247	51% 1223-1158 (2381)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Timo Legoutavg 22.1¢	$878.52	$1.1K	+$212.97	54% 16758-14063 (30821)
└ Timo Legout leg	Timo Legoutavg 22.1¢	$568.92	$862.73	+$293.81
└ Valentin Royer leg	Valentin Royeravg 90¢	$309.6	$228.76	-$80.84
GH ghostorder	Valentin Royeravg 80¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$81.25	62% 4243-2617 (6860)
VeryLucky888	Valentin Royeravg 63¢	$306.05	$388.77	+$2.4	58% 40486-29261 (69747)
TH thestingsnake	Valentin Royeravg 80.4¢	$394.8	$222.39	+$23.5	60% 3930-2656 (6586)
BI BillBenter2026	Valentin Royeravg 82.7¢	$107.5	$109.85	+$2.35	58% 18325-13460 (31785)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Timo Legoutavg 36¢	$58.77	$60.4	+$1.63	58% 27891-20538 (48429)
EF efntrick<$100	Valentin Royeravg 80¢	$28.8	$15	-$5.18	48% 3634-3892 (7526)
TRCMCTR<$100	Timo Legoutavg 16.1¢	$15.61	$11.16	-$4.46	55% 3903-3133 (7036)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Timo Legoutavg 8¢	$2.34	$4.53	+$2.19	54% 2678-2303 (4981)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Timo Legoutavg 13¢	$1.3	$0.95	-$0.35	52% 5837-5457 (11294)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Timo Legout

Invested

$1,500

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

38%

472-784 (1256)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Valentin Royer

Invested

$1,304.6

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$105.35

Record

52%

13520-12365 (25885)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Valentin Royer

Invested

$1,444

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$247

Record

51%

1223-1158 (2381)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Timo Legout

Invested

$878.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$212.97

Record

54%

16758-14063 (30821)

Both legs:

Timo Legout$568.9222.1¢+$293.81

Valentin Royer$309.690¢-$80.84

ghostorder

Valentin Royer

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$81.25

Record

62%

4243-2617 (6860)

VeryLucky888

Valentin Royer

Invested

$306.05

Value

$388.77

PnL

+$2.4

Record

58%

40486-29261 (69747)

thestingsnake

Valentin Royer

Invested

$394.8

Value

$222.39

PnL

+$23.5

Record

60%

3930-2656 (6586)

BillBenter2026

Valentin Royer

Invested

$107.5

Value

$109.85

PnL

+$2.35

Record

58%

18325-13460 (31785)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Timo Legout

Invested

$58.77

Value

$60.4

PnL

+$1.63

Record

58%

27891-20538 (48429)

efntrick<$100

Valentin Royer

Invested

$28.8

Value

$15

PnL

-$5.18

Record

48%

3634-3892 (7526)

TRCMCTR<$100

Timo Legout

Invested

$15.61

Value

$11.16

PnL

-$4.46

Record

55%

3903-3133 (7036)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Timo Legout

Invested

$2.34

Value

$4.53

PnL

+$2.19

Record

54%

2678-2303 (4981)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Timo Legout

Invested

$1.3

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.35

Record

52%

5837-5457 (11294)

Research grade

NeutralValentin Royer at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Valentin Royer

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Valentin Royer wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.