Brisbane 3: Christian Langmo vs August Holmgren

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold August Holmgren (89%) · August Holmgren at 73¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 22

Christian Langmo28¢August Holmgren72¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

August Holmgren

Consensus Traders

August Holmgren 89%

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$10.54

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 72.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Research candidateAugust Holmgren at 73%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

August Holmgren

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Christian Langmo28%

August Holmgren73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

August Holmgren8 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares7,798

Combined PnL-$48.23

Christian Langmo1 trader

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,236

Combined PnL+$58.77

August Holmgren — 89%Christian Langmo — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on August Holmgren. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAugust Holmgren 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedAugust Holmgren 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000August Holmgren 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
isco22	August Holmgrenavg 74¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$75.47	— 2-17 (19)
VeryLucky888	August Holmgrenavg 73.1¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$25.37	54% 1691-1455 (3146)
RN1CTR	Christian Langmoavg 26.1¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$58.77	55% 5758-4807 (10565)
38 38791873984189	August Holmgrenavg 72¢	$747.64	$612.85	+$6.01	47% 3580-3963 (7543)
0xheavy888	August Holmgrenavg 76¢	$151.97	$147.97	-$4	56% 580-460 (1040)
HY hydra1248<$100	August Holmgrenavg 73¢	$35.45	$35.21	-$0.24	75% 207-68 (275)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	August Holmgrenavg 74¢	$19.99	$19.99	+$0	47% 196-225 (421)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	August Holmgrenavg 73¢	$7.3	$7.4	+$0.1	42% 763-1062 (1825)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	August Holmgrenavg 74¢	$6.5	$6.5	+$0	46% 568-669 (1237)

isco22

August Holmgren

Invested

$2,792.48

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$75.47

Record

—

2-17 (19)

VeryLucky888

August Holmgren

Invested

$2,110.89

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$25.37

Record

54%

1691-1455 (3146)

RN1CTR

Christian Langmo

Invested

$1,106.16

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$58.77

Record

55%

5758-4807 (10565)

38791873984189

August Holmgren

Invested

$747.64

Value

$612.85

PnL

+$6.01

Record

47%

3580-3963 (7543)

0xheavy888

August Holmgren

Invested

$151.97

Value

$147.97

PnL

-$4

Record

56%

580-460 (1040)

hydra1248<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$35.45

Value

$35.21

PnL

-$0.24

Record

75%

207-68 (275)

glennyorkshire<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$19.99

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

196-225 (421)

ameisgoat11<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$7.3

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$0.1

Record

42%

763-1062 (1825)

omnibus-076daa<$100

August Holmgren

Invested

$6.5

Value

$6.5

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

568-669 (1237)

Research grade

Research candidateAugust Holmgren at 73%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

August Holmgren

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on August Holmgren. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAugust Holmgren 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedAugust Holmgren 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000August Holmgren 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that August Holmgren wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.