Swiss Indoors Basel: Jerome Kym vs Jiri Lehecka

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jiri Lehecka (43%) · Jiri Lehecka at 73¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 6

Jerome Kym28¢Jiri Lehecka72¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jiri Lehecka

Consensus Traders

Jiri Lehecka 43%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$45.82

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 72.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralJiri Lehecka at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jiri Lehecka

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jerome Kym28%

Jiri Lehecka73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jiri Lehecka3 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,442

Combined PnL+$17.21

Jerome Kym4 traders

Total Value$538.32

Total Shares1,958

Combined PnL-$63.03

Jiri Lehecka — 43%Jerome Kym — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Jiri Lehecka. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jiri Lehecka) and the top 1000 (6 on Jerome Kym) disagree here.

ctrJerome Kym 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedJiri Lehecka 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jerome Kym 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Jiri Leheckaavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$15.17	58% 41493-30115 (71608)
38 38791873984189	Jiri Leheckaavg 72¢	$288	$290	+$2	46% 7951-9381 (17332)
MR MrBentlyCTR	Jerome Kymavg 27¢	$272.7	$277.75	+$5.05	53% 540-480 (1020)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR	Jerome Kymavg 29¢	$193.33	$183.33	-$10	45% 396-493 (889)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR	Jerome Kymavg 50¢	$129.31	$71.12	-$58.19	48% 870-958 (1828)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Jerome Kymavg 27¢	$6	$6.12	+$0.11	62% 13684-8536 (22220)
SE sentrio<$100	Jiri Leheckaavg 72¢	$5.45	$5.49	+$0.04	50% 24906-24594 (49500)

VeryLucky888

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$2,184.83

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$15.17

Record

58%

41493-30115 (71608)

38791873984189

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$288

Value

$290

PnL

+$2

Record

46%

7951-9381 (17332)

MrBentlyCTR

Jerome Kym

Invested

$272.7

Value

$277.75

PnL

+$5.05

Record

53%

540-480 (1020)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR

Jerome Kym

Invested

$193.33

Value

$183.33

PnL

-$10

Record

45%

396-493 (889)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR

Jerome Kym

Invested

$129.31

Value

$71.12

PnL

-$58.19

Record

48%

870-958 (1828)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Jerome Kym

Invested

Value

$6.12

PnL

+$0.11

Record

62%

13684-8536 (22220)

sentrio<$100

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$5.45

Value

$5.49

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

24906-24594 (49500)

Research grade

NeutralJiri Lehecka at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jiri Lehecka

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Jiri Lehecka. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jiri Lehecka) and the top 1000 (6 on Jerome Kym) disagree here.

ctrJerome Kym 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedJiri Lehecka 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jerome Kym 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jiri Lehecka wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.