Sioux Falls: Mitchell Krueger vs Darwin Blanch

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Darwin Blanch (82%) · Darwin Blanch at 61¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 5

Mitchell Krueger40¢Darwin Blanch60¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Darwin Blanch

Consensus Traders

Darwin Blanch 82%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

-$192.68

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 60.5¢

+23% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralDarwin Blanch at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Darwin Blanch

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Mitchell Krueger40%

Darwin Blanch61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Darwin Blanch14 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares14,287

Combined PnL-$223.45

Mitchell Krueger3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,385

Combined PnL+$30.76

Darwin Blanch — 82%Mitchell Krueger — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Darwin Blanchavg 52¢	$7.0K	$2.8K	+$236.09	38% 485-799 (1284)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Darwin Blanchavg 68.4¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$265.21	54% 17016-14265 (31281)
└ Darwin Blanch leg	Darwin Blanchavg 68.4¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$176.05
└ Mitchell Krueger leg	Mitchell Kruegeravg 45.1¢	$723.66	$634.51	-$89.16
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Mitchell Kruegeravg 59.8¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$135.93	52% 13683-12498 (26181)
└ Mitchell Krueger leg	Mitchell Kruegeravg 59.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$83.19
└ Darwin Blanch leg	Darwin Blanchavg 47.3¢	$880.98	$661.87	-$219.11
RN1	Darwin Blanchavg 55.7¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$495.79	54% 56079-48206 (104285)
0X 0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945	Darwin Blanchavg 35¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$13.52	72% 939-368 (1307)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Mitchell Kruegeravg 25¢	$581.97	$663.45	+$81.48	49% 674-698 (1372)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041ARB<$100	Mitchell Kruegeravg 35¢	$425	$614.71	+$189.71	58% 214-152 (366)
└ Mitchell Krueger leg	Mitchell Kruegeravg 35¢	$250	$439.29	+$189.29
└ Darwin Blanch leg	Darwin Blanchavg 38.4¢	$175	$175.42	+$0.42
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Mitchell Kruegeravg 48.3¢	$507.5	$456.75	-$50.75	51% 1367-1309 (2676)
OM omnibus-076daa	Darwin Blanchavg 74¢	$253.02	$263.28	+$10.26	49% 18867-19279 (38146)
poshposh	Darwin Blanchavg 47¢	$141	$214.5	+$73.5	59% 9732-6717 (16449)
TRCM	Darwin Blanchavg 28.3¢	$136.7	$127.89	-$8.81	55% 3930-3168 (7098)
BI BillBenter2026	Darwin Blanchavg 84.6¢	$125.25	$95.46	-$29.79	58% 18521-13604 (32125)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Darwin Blanchavg 77¢	$96.59	$91.57	-$4.39	53% 363-319 (682)
TH thestingsnake	Darwin Blanchavg 30.6¢	$122.12	$83.51	-$7.21	60% 4016-2700 (6716)
0xheavy888<$100	Darwin Blanchavg 75¢	$30	$29.4	-$0.6	55% 7001-5619 (12620)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Darwin Blanchavg 57¢	$31.35	$26.68	-$4.68	50% 3765-3738 (7503)
HRTrading<$100	Darwin Blanchavg 88¢	$17.16	$12.77	-$4.39	52% 3772-3441 (7213)
VeryLucky888<$100	Darwin Blanchavg 73¢	$10.43	$9.36	-$1.07	58% 41297-29942 (71239)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Mitchell Kruegeravg 51¢	$3.75	$3.78	+$0.04	86% 4929-819 (5748)
tradecraft<$100	Darwin Blanchavg 51¢	$2.59	$2.51	-$0.08	51% 5938-5623 (11561)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$7,024

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$236.09

Record

38%

485-799 (1284)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$2,244.91

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$265.21

Record

54%

17016-14265 (31281)

Both legs:

Darwin Blanch$1,521.2568.4¢-$176.05

Mitchell Krueger$723.6645.1¢-$89.16

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$1,943.57

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$135.93

Record

52%

13683-12498 (26181)

Both legs:

Mitchell Krueger$1,062.5959.8¢+$83.19

Darwin Blanch$880.9847.3¢-$219.11

RN1

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$1,815.03

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$495.79

Record

54%

56079-48206 (104285)

0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$1,001

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$13.52

Record

72%

939-368 (1307)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$581.97

Value

$663.45

PnL

+$81.48

Record

49%

674-698 (1372)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041ARB<$100

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$425

Value

$614.71

PnL

+$189.71

Record

58%

214-152 (366)

Both legs:

Mitchell Krueger$25035¢+$189.29

Darwin Blanch$17538.4¢+$0.42

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$507.5

Value

$456.75

PnL

-$50.75

Record

51%

1367-1309 (2676)

omnibus-076daa

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$253.02

Value

$263.28

PnL

+$10.26

Record

49%

18867-19279 (38146)

poshposh

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$141

Value

$214.5

PnL

+$73.5

Record

59%

9732-6717 (16449)

TRCM

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$136.7

Value

$127.89

PnL

-$8.81

Record

55%

3930-3168 (7098)

BillBenter2026

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$125.25

Value

$95.46

PnL

-$29.79

Record

58%

18521-13604 (32125)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$96.59

Value

$91.57

PnL

-$4.39

Record

53%

363-319 (682)

thestingsnake

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$122.12

Value

$83.51

PnL

-$7.21

Record

60%

4016-2700 (6716)

0xheavy888<$100

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$30

Value

$29.4

PnL

-$0.6

Record

55%

7001-5619 (12620)

NatoAlfista<$100

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$31.35

Value

$26.68

PnL

-$4.68

Record

50%

3765-3738 (7503)

HRTrading<$100

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$17.16

Value

$12.77

PnL

-$4.39

Record

52%

3772-3441 (7213)

VeryLucky888<$100

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$10.43

Value

$9.36

PnL

-$1.07

Record

58%

41297-29942 (71239)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Mitchell Krueger

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$0.04

Record

86%

4929-819 (5748)

tradecraft<$100

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$2.59

Value

$2.51

PnL

-$0.08

Record

51%

5938-5623 (11561)

Research grade

NeutralDarwin Blanch at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Darwin Blanch

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Darwin Blanch wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.