Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Michal Krajci, while the market favors Niels Visker (75%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Bratislava 2: Michal Krajci vs Niels Visker
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Michal Krajci (50%) · Michal Krajci at 25¢ · $130 held · ends Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
Michal Krajci
4
Michal Krajci 50%
$130.26
$2.64
Research grade
AvoidMichal Krajci at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Niels Visker 75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Michal Krajciavg 24¢ | $58.03 | $60.44 | +$2.42 | 47% 12954-14535 (27489) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Niels Viskeravg 75¢ | $51 | $51 | +$0 | 58% 43586-31701 (75287) |
IW iWasEnough<$100 | Niels Viskeravg 76¢ | $13.76 | $13.67 | -$0.09 | 53% 8068-7281 (15349) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Michal Krajciavg 23¢ | $4.83 | $5.15 | +$0.32 | 46% 7287-8594 (15881) |
Invested
$58.03
Value
$60.44
PnL
+$2.42
Record
47%
12954-14535 (27489)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$51
Value
$51
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
43586-31701 (75287)
Invested
$13.76
Value
$13.67
PnL
-$0.09
Record
53%
8068-7281 (15349)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$4.83
Value
$5.15
PnL
+$0.32
Record
46%
7287-8594 (15881)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.