Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Stefan Kozlov, while the market favors Murphy Cassone (62%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Sioux Falls: Stefan Kozlov vs Murphy Cassone
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Stefan Kozlov (67%) · Stefan Kozlov at 38¢ · $97 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Stefan Kozlov
3
Stefan Kozlov 67%
$96.59
$6.7
Research grade
NeutralStefan Kozlov at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Murphy Cassone 62%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100 | Stefan Kozlovavg 35¢ | $50.44 | $54.77 | +$4.32 | 49% 3887-4076 (7963) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Stefan Kozlovavg 36¢ | $24.48 | $25.84 | +$2.38 | 58% 27868-20501 (48369) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Murphy Cassoneavg 61¢ | $15.72 | $15.98 | +$0 | 56% 6836-5476 (12312) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.