Brest: Moise Kouame vs Francesco Maestrelli

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Moise Kouame (93%) · Moise Kouame at 99¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 6

Moise Kouame>99¢Francesco Maestrelli<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Moise Kouame

Consensus Traders

Moise Kouame 93%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

$893.57

Smart Money Entry

86.5¢ → 99.4¢

+15% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralMoise Kouame at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Moise Kouame

14 of 15 top traders (93%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Moise Kouame99%

Francesco Maestrelli1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Moise Kouame14 traders

Total Value$14.7K

Total Shares15,677

Combined PnL+$915.57

Francesco Maestrelli1 trader

Total Value$17

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$22

Moise Kouame — 93%Francesco Maestrelli — 7%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Moise Kouameavg 85.7¢	$8.7K	$10.0K	+$1.3K	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
TH thestingsnake	Moise Kouameavg 89.9¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$119.64	60% 4037-2727 (6764)
MI MilesY	Moise Kouameavg 86¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	-$474.28	57% 614-460 (1074)
tradecraft	Moise Kouameavg 93.9¢	$689.37	$701.08	+$11.71	51% 5979-5671 (11650)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Moise Kouameavg 79.4¢	$825.24	$645.4	-$0	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
└ Moise Kouame leg	Moise Kouameavg 79.4¢	$428.17	$498.85	+$88.83
└ Francesco Maestrelli leg	Francesco Maestrelliavg 12.3¢	$239.59	$146.56	-$88.84
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Moise Kouameavg 83.9¢	$280.89	$265.83	-$15.06	52% 13728-12531 (26259)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Moise Kouameavg 75¢	$189.99	$241.09	+$51.1	48% 765-826 (1591)
└ Moise Kouame leg	Moise Kouameavg 75¢	$126.75	$125.91	-$0.84
└ Francesco Maestrelli leg	Francesco Maestrelliavg 14¢	$63.24	$115.18	+$51.94
OM omnibus-076daa	Moise Kouameavg 95¢	$166.55	$156.91	-$9.64	49% 18995-19405 (38400)
BI BillBenter2026	Moise Kouameavg 80.6¢	$111.27	$123.51	+$12.24	58% 18584-13649 (32233)
0xheavy888<$100	Moise Kouameavg 65¢	$68.25	$68.78	+$0.53	55% 7057-5659 (12716)
poshposh<$100	Moise Kouameavg 86¢	$35.02	$35.43	+$0.41	59% 9935-6911 (16846)
HRTrading<$100	Moise Kouameavg 90¢	$19.37	$19.68	+$0.31	52% 4004-3650 (7654)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Francesco Maestrelliavg 19.5¢	$39	$17	-$22	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
VeryLucky888<$100	Moise Kouameavg 64.5¢	$80.14	$6.18	+$0.93	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Moise Kouameavg 83¢	$4.88	$4.79	-$0.09	86% 5097-864 (5961)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Moise Kouameavg 64¢	$3.2	$3.28	+$0.08	47% 2270-2553 (4823)
TRCM<$100	Moise Kouameavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.28	-$0.22	55% 3938-3177 (7115)

UpTheBlues

Moise Kouame

Invested

$8,734.26

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

thestingsnake

Moise Kouame

Invested

$1,628.2

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$119.64

Record

60%

4037-2727 (6764)

MilesY

Moise Kouame

Invested

$1,989.66

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$474.28

Record

57%

614-460 (1074)

tradecraft

Moise Kouame

Invested

$689.37

Value

$701.08

PnL

+$11.71

Record

51%

5979-5671 (11650)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$825.24

Value

$645.4

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

Both legs:

Moise Kouame$428.1779.4¢+$88.83

Francesco Maestrelli$239.5912.3¢-$88.84

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Moise Kouame

Invested

$280.89

Value

$265.83

PnL

-$15.06

Record

52%

13728-12531 (26259)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$189.99

Value

$241.09

PnL

+$51.1

Record

48%

765-826 (1591)

Both legs:

Moise Kouame$126.7575¢-$0.84

Francesco Maestrelli$63.2414¢+$51.94

omnibus-076daa

Moise Kouame

Invested

$166.55

Value

$156.91

PnL

-$9.64

Record

49%

18995-19405 (38400)

BillBenter2026

Moise Kouame

Invested

$111.27

Value

$123.51

PnL

+$12.24

Record

58%

18584-13649 (32233)

0xheavy888<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$68.25

Value

$68.78

PnL

+$0.53

Record

55%

7057-5659 (12716)

poshposh<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$35.02

Value

$35.43

PnL

+$0.41

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

HRTrading<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$19.37

Value

$19.68

PnL

+$0.31

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Francesco Maestrelli

Invested

$39

Value

$17

PnL

-$22

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

VeryLucky888<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$80.14

Value

$6.18

PnL

+$0.93

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.79

PnL

-$0.09

Record

86%

5097-864 (5961)

ameisgoat11<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

2270-2553 (4823)

TRCM<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.28

PnL

-$0.22

Record

55%

3938-3177 (7115)

Research grade

NeutralMoise Kouame at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Moise Kouame

14 of 15 top traders (93%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Moise Kouame wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.