Brest: Moise Kouame vs Martin Damm
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Martin Damm (50%) · Martin Damm at 51¢ · $253 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Martin Damm
4
Martin Damm 50%
1 arb excluded
$253.1
-$0.76
Research grade
NeutralMartin Damm at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Moise Kouameavg 47¢ | $144.83 | $149.9 | +$5.07 | 57% 29212-21600 (50812) |
| └ Moise Kouame leg | Moise Kouameavg 47¢ | $79.83 | $84.9 | +$5.07 | |
| └ Martin Damm leg | Martin Dammavg 50¢ | $65 | $65 | +$0 | |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Martin Dammavg 51.3¢ | $51.12 | $49.81 | -$1.31 | 65% 1753-960 (2713) |
BA Bagwell306CTR<$100 | Moise Kouameavg 48¢ | $26.68 | $27.8 | +$0.83 | 58% 4066-2890 (6956) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Martin Dammavg 51¢ | $23.56 | $23.1 | -$0.46 | 50% 19424-19795 (39219) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Moise Kouameavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.5 | +$0.18 | 52% 7485-6781 (14266) |
Invested
$144.83
Value
$149.9
PnL
+$5.07
Record
57%
29212-21600 (50812)
Both legs:
Invested
$51.12
Value
$49.81
PnL
-$1.31
Record
65%
1753-960 (2713)
Invested
$26.68
Value
$27.8
PnL
+$0.83
Record
58%
4066-2890 (6956)
Invested
$23.56
Value
$23.1
PnL
-$0.46
Record
50%
19424-19795 (39219)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.18
Record
52%
7485-6781 (14266)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.