Knoxville: Orel Kimhi vs Filip Jeff Planinsek

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Filip Jeff Planinsek (67%) · Filip Jeff Planinsek at 74¢ · $327 held · ends Nov 17

Orel Kimhi27¢Filip Jeff Planinsek73¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Consensus Traders

Filip Jeff Planinsek 67%

Total Value

$327.2

Combined PnL

$19.97

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 73.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralFilip Jeff Planinsek at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Jeff Planinsek

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Orel Kimhi27%

Filip Jeff Planinsek74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Filip Jeff Planinsek4 traders

Total Value$252.77

Total Shares354

Combined PnL+$2.25

Orel Kimhi2 traders

Total Value$74.43

Total Shares236

Combined PnL+$17.72

Filip Jeff Planinsek — 67%Orel Kimhi — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 72.8¢	$160.37	$155.19	+$1.57	48% 214-230 (444)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100	Orel Kimhiavg 24¢	$50.4	$66.15	+$15.75	1% 2-197 (199)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 64.1¢	$53.5	$57.16	+$3.66	34% 163-316 (479)
PA Pan9X<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 73.4¢	$39.64	$36.99	-$2.65	48% 407-442 (849)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Orel Kimhiavg 24¢	$6.31	$8.28	+$1.97	25% 203-620 (823)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Filip Jeff Planinsekavg 75¢	$3.75	$3.43	-$0.32	22% 141-486 (627)

VeryLucky888

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$160.37

Value

$155.19

PnL

+$1.57

Record

48%

214-230 (444)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100

Orel Kimhi

Invested

$50.4

Value

$66.15

PnL

+$15.75

Record

2-197 (199)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$53.5

Value

$57.16

PnL

+$3.66

Record

34%

163-316 (479)

Pan9X<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$39.64

Value

$36.99

PnL

-$2.65

Record

48%

407-442 (849)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Orel Kimhi

Invested

$6.31

Value

$8.28

PnL

+$1.97

Record

25%

203-620 (823)

ameisgoat11<$100

Filip Jeff Planinsek

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.43

PnL

-$0.32

Record

22%

141-486 (627)

Research grade

NeutralFilip Jeff Planinsek at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Jeff Planinsek

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Filip Jeff Planinsek wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.