Erste Bank Open: Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Carlos Alcaraz (60%) · Carlos Alcaraz at 81¢ · $994 held · ends Nov 3

Karen Khachanov20¢Carlos Alcaraz80¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Carlos Alcaraz

Consensus Traders

Carlos Alcaraz 60%

Total Value

$993.74

Combined PnL

$22.03

Smart Money Entry

79.2¢ → 80.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCarlos Alcaraz at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Carlos Alcaraz

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Karen Khachanov20%

Carlos Alcaraz81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carlos Alcaraz3 traders

Total Value$880.82

Total Shares1,089

Combined PnL+$36.85

Karen Khachanov2 traders

Total Value$112.92

Total Shares627

Combined PnL-$14.82

Carlos Alcaraz — 60%Karen Khachanov — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Carlos Alcarazavg 79¢	$1.4K	$670.03	+$31.71	58% 40372-29160 (69532)
DA darkumbreon88	Carlos Alcarazavg 80¢	$161.53	$165.57	+$4.04	65% 1647-894 (2541)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR<$100	Karen Khachanovavg 20¢	$80.01	$72.01	-$8	44% 383-481 (864)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Carlos Alcarazavg 80¢	$44.12	$45.22	+$1.1	49% 18385-18813 (37198)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100	Karen Khachanovavg 21¢	$47.73	$40.91	-$6.82	48% 862-950 (1812)

VeryLucky888

Carlos Alcaraz

Invested

$1,416.76

Value

$670.03

PnL

+$31.71

Record

58%

40372-29160 (69532)

darkumbreon88

Carlos Alcaraz

Invested

$161.53

Value

$165.57

PnL

+$4.04

Record

65%

1647-894 (2541)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR<$100

Karen Khachanov

Invested

$80.01

Value

$72.01

PnL

-$8

Record

44%

383-481 (864)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Carlos Alcaraz

Invested

$44.12

Value

$45.22

PnL

+$1.1

Record

49%

18385-18813 (37198)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1CTR<$100

Karen Khachanov

Invested

$47.73

Value

$40.91

PnL

-$6.82

Record

48%

862-950 (1812)

Research grade

NeutralCarlos Alcaraz at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Carlos Alcaraz

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Carlos Alcaraz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.