Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Rio Noguchi — but Alibek Kachmazov won instead.

Seoul: Alibek Kachmazov vs Rio Noguchi

Resolved Alibek Kachmazov. 22% of the top Polymarket traders held Rio Noguchi. The smart money was wrong.

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Rio Noguchi 33%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$-3.2K

Rio Noguchi

2 of 9 top traders (22%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Alibek Kachmazov100%

Rio Noguchi0%

Alibek Kachmazov7 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,195

Combined PnL+$282.83

Rio Noguchi2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares12,225

Combined PnL$-3.5K

Alibek Kachmazov — 78%Rio Noguchi — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thestingsnake	Alibek Kachmazovavg 79.5¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	+$393.2	60% 3881-2639 (6520)
EF efntrick	Alibek Kachmazovavg 68.6¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$115.53	48% 3603-3856 (7459)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Rio Noguchiavg 22.7¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	52% 13465-12317 (25782)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	Alibek Kachmazovavg 72¢	$7.2	$10	+$2.8	62% 1694-1056 (2750)
HRTrading<$100	Alibek Kachmazovavg 66¢	$4.02	$6.09	+$2.07	54% 2548-2180 (4728)
0X 0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945CTR	Rio Noguchiavg 25¢	$9.6K	—	$-2.4K	72% 936-363 (1299)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Alibek Kachmazovavg 68¢	—	—	+$0	54% 16724-14033 (30757)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Alibek Kachmazovavg 68.9¢	—	—	+$0	59% 44229-30605 (74834)
VeryLucky888<$100	Alibek Kachmazovavg 60¢	$17.4	—	+$0.29	58% 40364-29157 (69521)