Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Alibek Kachmazov, while the market favors Seong-Chan Hong (56%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Seoul: Alibek Kachmazov vs Seong-Chan Hong
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Alibek Kachmazov (60%) · Alibek Kachmazov at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Alibek Kachmazov
10
Alibek Kachmazov 60%
$2.2K
$96.5
53.2¢ → 44.5¢
-16% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralAlibek Kachmazov at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Seong-Chan Hong 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1lovejumpCTR | Alibek Kachmazovavg 56.5¢ | $715.37 | $768.76 | +$125.76 | 53% 644-566 (1210) |
 RN1 | Seong-Chan Hongavg 47.4¢ | $384.13 | $425.32 | +$41.19 | 54% 55949-48067 (104016) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR | Alibek Kachmazovavg 55.8¢ | $355.13 | $335.98 | -$19.15 | 52% 13611-12440 (26051) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR | Alibek Kachmazovavg 45.1¢ | $279.39 | $294.23 | +$14.85 | 60% 3987-2681 (6668) |
LA lavendergooms | Seong-Chan Hongavg 35.6¢ | $366.4 | $293.47 | -$72.93 | 53% 2607-2352 (4959) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Seong-Chan Hongavg 54.5¢ | $87.4 | $93.83 | +$6.44 | 58% 18453-13536 (31989) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Alibek Kachmazovavg 58¢ | $19 | $9.75 | +$0.32 | 58% 41092-29767 (70859) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Alibek Kachmazovavg 59¢ | $7.3 | $7.24 | -$0.06 | 49% 18770-19171 (37941) |
 TRCMCTR<$100 | Alibek Kachmazovavg 70¢ | $3.5 | $3.47 | -$0.03 | 55% 3921-3157 (7078) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Seong-Chan Hongavg 52¢ | $1.04 | $1.15 | +$0.11 | 53% 3488-3134 (6622) |
Invested
$715.37
Value
$768.76
PnL
+$125.76
Record
53%
644-566 (1210)
RN1Invested
$384.13
Value
$425.32
PnL
+$41.19
Record
54%
55949-48067 (104016)
Invested
$355.13
Value
$335.98
PnL
-$19.15
Record
52%
13611-12440 (26051)
Invested
$279.39
Value
$294.23
PnL
+$14.85
Record
60%
3987-2681 (6668)
Invested
$366.4
Value
$293.47
PnL
-$72.93
Record
53%
2607-2352 (4959)
Invested
$87.4
Value
$93.83
PnL
+$6.44
Record
58%
18453-13536 (31989)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$19
Value
$9.75
PnL
+$0.32
Record
58%
41092-29767 (70859)
Invested
$7.3
Value
$7.24
PnL
-$0.06
Record
49%
18770-19171 (37941)
TRCMCTR<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.47
PnL
-$0.03
Record
55%
3921-3157 (7078)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.15
PnL
+$0.11
Record
53%
3488-3134 (6622)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
1lovejump
CTRAlibek Kachmazov — $768.76
RN1
Seong-Chan Hong — $425.32
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
CTRAlibek Kachmazov — $335.98
thestingsnake
CTRAlibek Kachmazov — $294.23
lavendergooms
Seong-Chan Hong — $293.47
BillBenter2026
Seong-Chan Hong — $93.83
VeryLucky888
CTRAlibek Kachmazov — $9.75
omnibus-076daa
CTRAlibek Kachmazov — $7.24
TRCM
CTRAlibek Kachmazov — $3.47
HRTrading
Seong-Chan Hong — $1.15