Seoul: Omar Jasika vs Yun-Seong Chung

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Omar Jasika (91%) · Omar Jasika at 93¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 6

Omar Jasika93¢Yun-Seong Chung7¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Omar Jasika

Consensus Traders

Omar Jasika 91%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$431.84

Smart Money Entry

75.3¢ → 92.5¢

+23% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralOmar Jasika at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Omar Jasika

10 of 11 top traders (91%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Omar Jasika93%

Yun-Seong Chung8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Omar Jasika10 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,523

Combined PnL+$431.68

Yun-Seong Chung1 trader

Total Value$260.43

Total Shares704

Combined PnL+$0.15

Omar Jasika — 91%Yun-Seong Chung — 9%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Omar Jasikaavg 82.6¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$262.16	54% 17065-14298 (31363)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Omar Jasikaavg 61.9¢	$771.69	$939.76	+$168.07	52% 13701-12510 (26211)
38 38791873984189	Omar Jasikaavg 70.8¢	$651.83	$509.33	+$104.23	46% 7787-9202 (16989)
TH thestingsnake	Omar Jasikaavg 74.9¢	$572.5	$411.26	-$27.71	60% 4029-2714 (6743)
KE Kev69	Omar Jasikaavg 75.5¢	$332.42	$281.77	-$50.65	54% 576-484 (1060)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 80¢	$321.64	$275.47	-$46.16	55% 5686-4726 (10412)
└ Omar Jasika leg	Omar Jasikaavg 80¢	$196	$148.23	-$47.78
└ Yun-Seong Chung leg	Yun-Seong Chungavg 39¢	$125.64	$127.25	+$1.61
VeryLucky888CTR	Yun-Seong Chungavg 37¢	$266.07	$260.43	+$0.15	58% 41434-30051 (71485)
tradecraftARB<$100	Yun-Seong Chungavg 5.3¢	$116.69	$156.26	+$39.56	51% 5961-5650 (11611)
└ Yun-Seong Chung leg	Yun-Seong Chungavg 5.3¢	$63.44	$90.58	+$27.14
└ Omar Jasika leg	Omar Jasikaavg 75¢	$53.25	$65.68	+$12.42
SC SchruteBucksARB<$100	Yun-Seong Chungavg 26¢	$289.13	$135.71	-$153.17	56% 1835-1425 (3260)
└ Omar Jasika leg	Omar Jasikaavg 72¢	$52.88	$67.93	+$15.06
└ Yun-Seong Chung leg	Yun-Seong Chungavg 26¢	$234.95	$67.77	-$168.23
TRCM	Omar Jasikaavg 84¢	$107.19	$81.67	-$25.52	55% 3933-3171 (7104)
poshposh<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 65¢	$60.07	$72.54	+$12.48	59% 9826-6844 (16670)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 83¢	$24.9	$19.2	-$5.7	58% 18561-13624 (32185)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 74.8¢	$20.68	$17.57	-$3.11	49% 18950-19362 (38312)
PA pauleta23<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 86¢	$10	$7.44	-$2.56	67% 23249-11652 (34901)

HomeRunHazard

Omar Jasika

Invested

$1,657.06

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$262.16

Record

54%

17065-14298 (31363)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Omar Jasika

Invested

$771.69

Value

$939.76

PnL

+$168.07

Record

52%

13701-12510 (26211)

38791873984189

Omar Jasika

Invested

$651.83

Value

$509.33

PnL

+$104.23

Record

46%

7787-9202 (16989)

thestingsnake

Omar Jasika

Invested

$572.5

Value

$411.26

PnL

-$27.71

Record

60%

4029-2714 (6743)

Kev69

Omar Jasika

Invested

$332.42

Value

$281.77

PnL

-$50.65

Record

54%

576-484 (1060)

EulhunterARB<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$321.64

Value

$275.47

PnL

-$46.16

Record

55%

5686-4726 (10412)

Both legs:

Omar Jasika$19680¢-$47.78

Yun-Seong Chung$125.6439¢+$1.61

VeryLucky888CTR

Yun-Seong Chung

Invested

$266.07

Value

$260.43

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

41434-30051 (71485)

tradecraftARB<$100

Yun-Seong Chung

Invested

$116.69

Value

$156.26

PnL

+$39.56

Record

51%

5961-5650 (11611)

Both legs:

Yun-Seong Chung$63.445.3¢+$27.14

Omar Jasika$53.2575¢+$12.42

SchruteBucksARB<$100

Yun-Seong Chung

Invested

$289.13

Value

$135.71

PnL

-$153.17

Record

56%

1835-1425 (3260)

Both legs:

Omar Jasika$52.8872¢+$15.06

Yun-Seong Chung$234.9526¢-$168.23

TRCM

Omar Jasika

Invested

$107.19

Value

$81.67

PnL

-$25.52

Record

55%

3933-3171 (7104)

poshposh<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$60.07

Value

$72.54

PnL

+$12.48

Record

59%

9826-6844 (16670)

BillBenter2026<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$24.9

Value

$19.2

PnL

-$5.7

Record

58%

18561-13624 (32185)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$20.68

Value

$17.57

PnL

-$3.11

Record

49%

18950-19362 (38312)

pauleta23<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$10

Value

$7.44

PnL

-$2.56

Record

67%

23249-11652 (34901)

Research grade

NeutralOmar Jasika at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Omar Jasika

10 of 11 top traders (91%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Omar Jasika wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.