Charlottesville: Jangjun Kim vs Ozan Baris
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ozan Baris (78%) · Ozan Baris at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Ozan Baris
9
Ozan Baris 78%
$6.5K
-$359.46
83.2¢ → 100¢
+20% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralOzan Baris at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Ozan Barisavg 83¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | +$24.17 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
UP UpTheBlues | Ozan Barisavg 82.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.2K | -$388.03 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Jangjun Kimavg 17.4¢ | $945.55 | $951.44 | +$5.89 | 50% 19465-19831 (39296) |
LO looppau | Ozan Barisavg 99.9¢ | $174.11 | $174.19 | +$0.09 | 99% 11171-71 (11242) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Ozan Barisavg 78.5¢ | $40.81 | $44.5 | +$3.69 | 60% 4110-2768 (6878) |
 VeryLucky888 | Ozan Barisavg 60.7¢ | $105.9 | $23.76 | +$1.88 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Ozan Barisavg 63¢ | $18.88 | $18.58 | -$0.3 | 55% 7319-5884 (13203) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Ozan Barisavg 85.2¢ | $18.5 | $18.36 | -$0.14 | 52% 13935-12713 (26648) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Jangjun Kimavg 13.2¢ | $6.72 | $0.03 | -$6.69 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
RN1Invested
$4,013.05
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$24.17
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$1,623.7
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$388.03
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$945.55
Value
$951.44
PnL
+$5.89
Record
50%
19465-19831 (39296)
Invested
$174.11
Value
$174.19
PnL
+$0.09
Record
99%
11171-71 (11242)
Invested
$40.81
Value
$44.5
PnL
+$3.69
Record
60%
4110-2768 (6878)
VeryLucky888Invested
$105.9
Value
$23.76
PnL
+$1.88
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$18.88
Value
$18.58
PnL
-$0.3
Record
55%
7319-5884 (13203)
Invested
$18.5
Value
$18.36
PnL
-$0.14
Record
52%
13935-12713 (26648)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.72
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$6.69
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
Ozan Baris — $4.0K
UpTheBlues
Ozan Baris — $1.2K
omnibus-076daa
CTRJangjun Kim — $951.44
looppau
Ozan Baris — $174.19
thestingsnake
Ozan Baris — $44.5
VeryLucky888
Ozan Baris — $23.76
0xheavy888
Ozan Baris — $18.58
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Ozan Baris — $18.36
HRTrading
CTRJangjun Kim — $0.03