Rolex Paris Masters: Kyrian Jacquet vs Tomas Machac

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Tomas Machac (60%) · Tomas Machac at 64¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 9

Kyrian Jacquet37¢Tomas Machac63¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tomas Machac

Consensus Traders

Tomas Machac 60%

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$39.64

Smart Money Entry

63.1¢ → 63.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTomas Machac at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tomas Machac

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kyrian Jacquet37%

Tomas Machac64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tomas Machac6 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares10,313

Combined PnL+$41.87

Kyrian Jacquet4 traders

Total Value$648.56

Total Shares1,767

Combined PnL-$2.22

Tomas Machac — 60%Kyrian Jacquet — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+38 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Tomas Machac. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTomas Machac 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTomas Machac 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrTomas Machac 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedTomas Machac 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Tomas Machac 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Tomas Machacavg 63¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$22.84	46% 390-453 (843)
K5 k56	Tomas Machacavg 63.3¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$7.68	57% 890-659 (1549)
VeryLucky888	Tomas Machacavg 63¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$10.5	58% 43595-31708 (75303)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Kyrian Jacquetavg 36¢	$238.78	$242.1	+$3.32	72% 6934-2737 (9671)
poshposhCTR	Kyrian Jacquetavg 36.5¢	$219	$222	+$0	58% 11427-8282 (19709)
38 38791873984189CTR	Kyrian Jacquet	$147.46	$147.46	-$4.04	47% 12988-14555 (27543)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Tomas Machacavg 63¢	$120.53	$76.54	+$0.6	49% 357-375 (732)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Kyrian Jacquetavg 38¢	$38	$37	-$1.5	47% 10052-11159 (21211)
0xheavy888<$100	Tomas Machacavg 63¢	$26.46	$26.67	+$0.21	55% 7458-5981 (13439)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Tomas Machacavg 63¢	$3.15	$3.18	+$0.02	52% 7637-6912 (14549)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Tomas Machac

Invested

$2,878.32

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$22.84

Record

46%

390-453 (843)

k56

Tomas Machac

Invested

$2,200

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$7.68

Record

57%

890-659 (1549)

VeryLucky888

Tomas Machac

Invested

$1,323

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$10.5

Record

58%

43595-31708 (75303)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Kyrian Jacquet

Invested

$238.78

Value

$242.1

PnL

+$3.32

Record

72%

6934-2737 (9671)

poshposhCTR

Kyrian Jacquet

Invested

$219

Value

$222

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

11427-8282 (19709)

38791873984189CTR

Kyrian Jacquet

Invested

$147.46

Value

$147.46

PnL

-$4.04

Record

47%

12988-14555 (27543)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Tomas Machac

Invested

$120.53

Value

$76.54

PnL

+$0.6

Record

49%

357-375 (732)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Kyrian Jacquet

Invested

$38

Value

$37

PnL

-$1.5

Record

47%

10052-11159 (21211)

0xheavy888<$100

Tomas Machac

Invested

$26.46

Value

$26.67

PnL

+$0.21

Record

55%

7458-5981 (13439)

ameisgoat11<$100

Tomas Machac

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

7637-6912 (14549)

Research grade

NeutralTomas Machac at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tomas Machac

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+38 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Tomas Machac. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTomas Machac 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTomas Machac 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrTomas Machac 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedTomas Machac 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Tomas Machac 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tomas Machac wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.