Matsuyama: Masamichi Imamura vs Ryuki Matsuda

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Ryuki Matsuda (55%) · Ryuki Matsuda at 100¢ · $46K held · ends Nov 16

Masamichi Imamura<1¢Ryuki Matsuda>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ryuki Matsuda

Consensus Traders

Ryuki Matsuda 55%

Total Value

$46.1K

Combined PnL

$510.13

Smart Money Entry

96.2¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralRyuki Matsuda at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ryuki Matsuda

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Masamichi Imamura0%

Ryuki Matsuda100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ryuki Matsuda6 traders

Total Value$34.3K

Total Shares34,738

Combined PnL+$825.46

Masamichi Imamura5 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares23,576

Combined PnL-$315.33

Ryuki Matsuda — 55%Masamichi Imamura — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH Sharky6999	Ryuki Matsudaavg 99.2¢	$24.8K	$25.0K	+$157.5	98% 9776-204 (9980)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Masamichi Imamuraavg 34.8¢	$6.2K	$7.9K	+$1.6K	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
38 38791873984189	Ryuki Matsudaavg 72.7¢	$2.6K	$3.0K	+$782.6	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
OJ ojg	Ryuki Matsudaavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$28.5	51% 3970-3784 (7754)
LO looppau	Ryuki Matsudaavg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$1.25	99% 15884-134 (16018)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Masamichi Imamuraavg 33.8¢	$981	$1.6K	+$639.94	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
LI LimousinCTR	Masamichi Imamuraavg 37.9¢	$928.81	$1.3K	+$345.59	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
VE VenusianCTR	Masamichi Imamuraavg 31.8¢	$3.9K	$1.0K	$-2.9K	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
TH thestingsnake	Ryuki Matsudaavg 90.9¢	$704.54	$637.78	+$21.65	60% 4598-3103 (7701)
latvian.demon	Ryuki Matsudaavg 62.2¢	$342.04	$176	-$166.04	54% 810-680 (1490)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Masamichi Imamuraavg 33.6¢	$17.86	$0.03	-$17.83	54% 10225-8705 (18930)

Sharky6999

Ryuki Matsuda

Invested

$24,805

Value

$25.0K

PnL

+$157.5

Record

98%

9776-204 (9980)

MadridTimeCTR

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

$6,222.6

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

38791873984189

Ryuki Matsuda

Invested

$2,575.21

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$782.6

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

ojg

Ryuki Matsuda

Invested

$2,970

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$28.5

Record

51%

3970-3784 (7754)

looppau

Ryuki Matsuda

Invested

$2,497.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.25

Record

99%

15884-134 (16018)

LightParadoxCTR

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

$981

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$639.94

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

LimousinCTR

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

$928.81

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$345.59

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

VenusianCTR

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

$3,948.9

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

thestingsnake

Ryuki Matsuda

Invested

$704.54

Value

$637.78

PnL

+$21.65

Record

60%

4598-3103 (7701)

latvian.demon

Ryuki Matsuda

Invested

$342.04

Value

$176

PnL

-$166.04

Record

54%

810-680 (1490)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

$17.86

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$17.83

Record

54%

10225-8705 (18930)

Research grade

NeutralRyuki Matsuda at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Ryuki Matsuda

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ryuki Matsuda wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.