Knoxville: Giles Hussey vs Michael Zheng
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Michael Zheng (40%) · Michael Zheng at 78¢ · $645 held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Michael Zheng
5
Michael Zheng 40%
$644.82
-$0.19
77.3¢ → 77.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralMichael Zheng at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Michael Zhengavg 77.3¢ | $451.73 | $452.65 | +$0.92 | 56% 99-79 (178) |
LI LimousinCTR | Giles Husseyavg 22.9¢ | $116.14 | $114.17 | -$1.97 | 24% 201-642 (843) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Michael Zhengavg 77¢ | $40.04 | $40.3 | +$0.26 | 48% 407-442 (849) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Giles Husseyavg 22¢ | $31.14 | $31.86 | +$0.72 | 24% 202-632 (834) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Giles Husseyavg 23¢ | $5.97 | $5.84 | -$0.13 | 25% 203-620 (823) |
0xheavy888Invested
$451.73
Value
$452.65
PnL
+$0.92
Record
56%
99-79 (178)
Invested
$116.14
Value
$114.17
PnL
-$1.97
Record
24%
201-642 (843)
Invested
$40.04
Value
$40.3
PnL
+$0.26
Record
48%
407-442 (849)
Invested
$31.14
Value
$31.86
PnL
+$0.72
Record
24%
202-632 (834)
Invested
$5.97
Value
$5.84
PnL
-$0.13
Record
25%
203-620 (823)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.