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Holger RuneHubert HurkaczHubert Hurkacz
poshposhCTR<$100Holger Rune
VeryLucky888<$100Hubert Hurkacz
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Holger Rune — but Hubert Hurkacz won instead.
Set 1 Winner: Hubert Hurkacz vs Holger Rune
Resolved Hubert Hurkacz. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Holger Rune. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Holger Rune 50%
Total Value
$300
Combined PnL
$-1.1K
Smart Money Signal
Holger Rune
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Hubert Hurkacz100%
Holger Rune0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Holger Rune2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares2,700
Combined PnL$-1.2K
Hubert Hurkacz3 traders
Total Value$300
Total Shares300
Combined PnL+$105
Holger Rune — 40%Hubert Hurkacz — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IV Ivan948CTR | Holger Runeavg 42.9¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 42% 52-71 (123) |
MI mishipolis | Hubert Hurkaczavg 57¢ | $252 | $300 | +$105 | 50% 4444-4370 (8814) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Hubert Hurkaczavg 59¢ | — | — | +$0 | 47% 2075-2359 (4434) |
poshposhCTR<$100 | Holger Runeavg 16¢ | — | — | +$0 | 60% 9411-6401 (15812) |
VeryLucky888<$100 | Hubert Hurkaczavg 56.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 40808-29511 (70319) |
IV
Ivan948CTRInvested
$1,157.6
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
42%
52-71 (123)
MI
mishipolisInvested
$252
Value
$300
PnL
+$105
Record
50%
4444-4370 (8814)
AM
ameisgoat11<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2075-2359 (4434)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
9411-6401 (15812)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
40808-29511 (70319)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xb0bc0433...3dfd1f
Slug
atp-hurkacz-rune-2026-10-28-first-set-winner-Hurkacz-vs-Rune