Swiss Indoors Basel: Hubert Hurkacz vs Holger Rune

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hubert Hurkacz (20%) · Hubert Hurkacz at 66¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Hubert Hurkacz66¢Holger Rune34¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hubert Hurkacz

Consensus Traders

Hubert Hurkacz 20%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$35.27

Research grade

NeutralHubert Hurkacz at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hubert Hurkacz

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hubert Hurkacz66%

Holger Rune35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hubert Hurkacz1 trader

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,077

Combined PnL-$76.92

Holger Rune4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,600

Combined PnL+$112.19

Hubert Hurkacz — 20%Holger Rune — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
K5 k56	Hubert Hurkaczavg 65¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$76.92	58% 883-652 (1535)
VeryLucky888CTR	Holger Runeavg 35¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$81.29	58% 40752-29469 (70221)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Holger Runeavg 35¢	$356.16	$381.6	+$25.44	62% 13612-8453 (22065)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Holger Runeavg 36.4¢	$63.68	$65.63	+$1.94	58% 28121-20725 (48846)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Holger Runeavg 35¢	$49.28	$52.8	+$3.52	59% 44606-31003 (75609)

k56

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$76.92

Record

58%

883-652 (1535)

VeryLucky888CTR

Holger Rune

Invested

$1,143.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$81.29

Record

58%

40752-29469 (70221)

LilybaeumCTR

Holger Rune

Invested

$356.16

Value

$381.6

PnL

+$25.44

Record

62%

13612-8453 (22065)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Holger Rune

Invested

$63.68

Value

$65.63

PnL

+$1.94

Record

58%

28121-20725 (48846)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Holger Rune

Invested

$49.28

Value

$52.8

PnL

+$3.52

Record

59%

44606-31003 (75609)

Research grade

NeutralHubert Hurkacz at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hubert Hurkacz

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hubert Hurkacz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.