Swiss Indoors Basel: Hubert Hurkacz vs Zizou Bergs

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Hubert Hurkacz (50%) · Hubert Hurkacz at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Hubert Hurkacz63¢Zizou Bergs37¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hubert Hurkacz

Consensus Traders

Hubert Hurkacz 50%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$3.54

Smart Money Entry

62.7¢ → 63¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralHubert Hurkacz at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hubert Hurkacz

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hubert Hurkacz63%

Zizou Bergs37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hubert Hurkacz2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,381

Combined PnL-$4.29

Zizou Bergs2 traders

Total Value$721.13

Total Shares1,949

Combined PnL+$0.75

Hubert Hurkacz — 50%Zizou Bergs — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584	Hubert Hurkaczavg 63¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$10	53% 149-134 (283)
VeryLucky888CTR	Zizou Bergsavg 37¢	$666	$666	+$0	58% 40364-29157 (69521)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Hubert Hurkaczavg 61¢	$232.26	$237.97	+$5.71	44% 383-481 (864)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Zizou Bergsavg 37¢	$55.13	$55.13	+$0.75	56% 6834-5474 (12308)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$1,260

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

149-134 (283)

VeryLucky888CTR

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$666

Value

$666

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

40364-29157 (69521)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Hubert Hurkacz

Invested

$232.26

Value

$237.97

PnL

+$5.71

Record

44%

383-481 (864)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Zizou Bergs

Invested

$55.13

Value

$55.13

PnL

+$0.75

Record

56%

6834-5474 (12308)

Research grade

NeutralHubert Hurkacz at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hubert Hurkacz

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hubert Hurkacz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.