Rolex Paris Masters: Ugo Humbert vs Botic van de Zandschulp

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Ugo Humbert (92%) · Ugo Humbert at 62¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 9

Ugo Humbert62¢Botic van de Zandschulp38¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Ugo Humbert

Consensus Traders

Ugo Humbert 92%

Total Value

$16.8K

Combined PnL

$358.95

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 61.5¢

+2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

Research candidateUgo Humbert at 62%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ugo Humbert

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Ugo Humbert62%

Botic van de Zandschulp39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ugo Humbert11 traders

Total Value$16.7K

Total Shares27,251

Combined PnL+$358.67

Botic van de Zandschulp1 trader

Total Value$118.79

Total Shares309

Combined PnL+$0.28

Ugo Humbert — 92%Botic van de Zandschulp — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+34 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Ugo Humbert. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUgo Humbert 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUgo Humbert 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUgo Humbert 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUgo Humbert 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ugo Humbert 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Ugo Humbertavg 60¢	$7.5K	$7.6K	+$186.86	50% 226-222 (448)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Ugo Humbertavg 60¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$100.02	73% 3621-1337 (4958)
VeryLucky888	Ugo Humbertavg 60.9¢	$5.1K	$3.8K	+$18.37	58% 43629-31734 (75363)
DV dv-pm	Ugo Humbertavg 62¢	$701.84	$696.18	-$5.66	49% 3239-3325 (6564)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Ugo Humbertavg 50¢	$240	$295.2	+$55.2	45% 405-499 (904)
0xheavy888	Ugo Humbertavg 60¢	$117.6	$120.54	+$2.94	56% 7471-5987 (13458)
38 38791873984189CTR	Botic van de Zandschulpavg 39.1¢	$165.25	$118.79	+$0.28	47% 13045-14637 (27682)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Ugo Humbertavg 61¢	$50	$50.41	+$0.41	54% 5914-4956 (10870)
MA manoamano<$100	Ugo Humbertavg 61¢	$49.11	$49.51	+$0.4	51% 531-507 (1038)
GG GGLPL<$100	Ugo Humbertavg 61¢	$11.97	$12.07	+$0.1	50% 714-717 (1431)
SE sentrio<$100	Ugo Humbertavg 61¢	$7.59	$7.66	+$0.06	50% 25013-24733 (49746)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Ugo Humbertavg 62¢	$3.1	$3.08	-$0.02	50% 19827-20170 (39997)

Kch-Temp

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$7,474.11

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$186.86

Record

50%

226-222 (448)

JAMJAMJAM4

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$4,000.19

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$100.02

Record

73%

3621-1337 (4958)

VeryLucky888

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$5,130.58

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$18.37

Record

58%

43629-31734 (75363)

dv-pm

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$701.84

Value

$696.18

PnL

-$5.66

Record

49%

3239-3325 (6564)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$240

Value

$295.2

PnL

+$55.2

Record

45%

405-499 (904)

0xheavy888

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$117.6

Value

$120.54

PnL

+$2.94

Record

56%

7471-5987 (13458)

38791873984189CTR

Botic van de Zandschulp

Invested

$165.25

Value

$118.79

PnL

+$0.28

Record

47%

13045-14637 (27682)

Eulhunter<$100

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$50

Value

$50.41

PnL

+$0.41

Record

54%

5914-4956 (10870)

manoamano<$100

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$49.11

Value

$49.51

PnL

+$0.4

Record

51%

531-507 (1038)

GGLPL<$100

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$11.97

Value

$12.07

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

714-717 (1431)

sentrio<$100

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$7.59

Value

$7.66

PnL

+$0.06

Record

50%

25013-24733 (49746)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Ugo Humbert

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.08

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

19827-20170 (39997)

Research grade

Research candidateUgo Humbert at 62%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ugo Humbert

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+34 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Ugo Humbert. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUgo Humbert 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUgo Humbert 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUgo Humbert 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUgo Humbert 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Ugo Humbert 89% · 9

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ugo Humbert wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.