Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Naoya Honda, while the market favors Filip Peliwo (71%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ningbo: Naoya Honda vs Filip Peliwo

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Naoya Honda (33%) · Naoya Honda at 30¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3

Naoya Honda30¢Filip Peliwo70¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Naoya Honda

Consensus Traders

Naoya Honda 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$109.4

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 29.5¢

-42% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNaoya Honda at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Naoya Honda

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Filip Peliwo 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Naoya Honda30%

Filip Peliwo71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Naoya Honda2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,163

Combined PnL-$123.04

Filip Peliwo4 traders

Total Value$720.06

Total Shares1,126

Combined PnL+$13.64

Naoya Honda — 33%Filip Peliwo — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Filip Peliwoavg 51.9¢	$856.34	$879.72	+$23.38	59% 44240-30609 (74849)
└ Filip Peliwo leg	Filip Peliwoavg 51.9¢	$435.8	$659.4	+$223.6
└ Naoya Honda leg	Naoya Hondaavg 41¢	$420.54	$220.32	-$200.22
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Naoya Hondaavg 50.3¢	$961.3	$745.99	-$136.77	60% 3888-2641 (6529)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Filip Peliwoavg 49.3¢	$408.9	$384.74	-$24.16	52% 13467-12324 (25791)
VeryLucky888CTR	Naoya Hondaavg 52.5¢	$354.51	$368.24	+$13.73	58% 40372-29160 (69532)
EF efntrick	Filip Peliwoavg 81¢	$170.02	$167.85	-$2.17	48% 3606-3861 (7467)
BI BillBenter2026	Filip Peliwoavg 60.3¢	$117.02	$156.17	+$39.15	58% 18292-13443 (31735)
HRTrading<$100	Filip Peliwoavg 52.4¢	$10.48	$11.3	+$0.82	54% 2551-2184 (4735)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$856.34

Value

$879.72

PnL

+$23.38

Record

59%

44240-30609 (74849)

Both legs:

Filip Peliwo$435.851.9¢+$223.6

Naoya Honda$420.5441¢-$200.22

thestingsnakeCTR

Naoya Honda

Invested

$961.3

Value

$745.99

PnL

-$136.77

Record

60%

3888-2641 (6529)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$408.9

Value

$384.74

PnL

-$24.16

Record

52%

13467-12324 (25791)

VeryLucky888CTR

Naoya Honda

Invested

$354.51

Value

$368.24

PnL

+$13.73

Record

58%

40372-29160 (69532)

efntrick

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$170.02

Value

$167.85

PnL

-$2.17

Record

48%

3606-3861 (7467)

BillBenter2026

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$117.02

Value

$156.17

PnL

+$39.15

Record

58%

18292-13443 (31735)

HRTrading<$100

Filip Peliwo

Invested

$10.48

Value

$11.3

PnL

+$0.82

Record

54%

2551-2184 (4735)

Research grade

AvoidNaoya Honda at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Naoya Honda

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Filip Peliwo 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Naoya Honda wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.