Seoul: Billy Harris vs Terence Atmane

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Terence Atmane (46%) · Terence Atmane at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 7

Billy Harris<1¢Terence Atmane>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Terence Atmane

Consensus Traders

Terence Atmane 46%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$286.36

Smart Money Entry

91.3¢ → 100¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTerence Atmane at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Terence Atmane

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Billy Harris0%

Terence Atmane100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Terence Atmane6 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,769

Combined PnL+$118.62

Billy Harris7 traders

Total Value$401.72

Total Shares4,393

Combined PnL-$404.97

Terence Atmane — 46%Billy Harris — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Terence Atmane. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Terence Atmane) and the top 1000 (9 on Billy Harris) disagree here.

whaleBilly Harris 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpBilly Harris 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrBilly Harris 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedTerence Atmane 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Billy Harris 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA Paul973973	Terence Atmaneavg 87.2¢	$1,000	$1.1K	+$146.7	89% 918-117 (1035)
TH thestingsnake	Terence Atmaneavg 92.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$42.26	60% 4058-2737 (6795)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Terence Atmaneavg 97.9¢	$874.12	$811.14	-$62.97	52% 13778-12574 (26352)
1L 1lovejump	Terence Atmaneavg 88.3¢	$1.1K	$653.64	-$16.71	53% 662-584 (1246)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Billy Harrisavg 14¢	$565.95	$290.2	-$275.75	59% 45754-32097 (77851)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Terence Atmaneavg 90.3¢	$85.75	$94.95	+$9.2	58% 18635-13702 (32337)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Billy Harrisavg 26¢	$75.69	$93.16	+$1.46	74% 6669-2386 (9055)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Billy Harrisavg 26¢	$14.3	$17.6	+$0.28	58% 28668-21156 (49824)
HRTrading<$100	Terence Atmaneavg 93¢	$1.86	$2	+$0.14	53% 4540-4093 (8633)
RN1CTR<$100	Billy Harrisavg 0.8¢	$7.5	$0.5	-$7	54% 56561-48730 (105291)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Billy Harrisavg 26¢	$80.34	$0.15	-$80.19	50% 3867-3816 (7683)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Billy Harrisavg 23.3¢	$35	$0.08	-$34.93	49% 7885-8203 (16088)
poshposhCTR<$100	Billy Harrisavg 16.4¢	$8.87	$0.03	-$8.85	59% 10125-7117 (17242)

Paul973973

Terence Atmane

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$146.7

Record

89%

918-117 (1035)

thestingsnake

Terence Atmane

Invested

$1,084.16

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$42.26

Record

60%

4058-2737 (6795)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Terence Atmane

Invested

$874.12

Value

$811.14

PnL

-$62.97

Record

52%

13778-12574 (26352)

1lovejump

Terence Atmane

Invested

$1,080.39

Value

$653.64

PnL

-$16.71

Record

53%

662-584 (1246)

UpTheBluesCTR

Billy Harris

Invested

$565.95

Value

$290.2

PnL

-$275.75

Record

59%

45754-32097 (77851)

BillBenter2026<$100

Terence Atmane

Invested

$85.75

Value

$94.95

PnL

+$9.2

Record

58%

18635-13702 (32337)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$75.69

Value

$93.16

PnL

+$1.46

Record

74%

6669-2386 (9055)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$14.3

Value

$17.6

PnL

+$0.28

Record

58%

28668-21156 (49824)

HRTrading<$100

Terence Atmane

Invested

$1.86

Value

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

4540-4093 (8633)

RN1CTR<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$7.5

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$7

Record

54%

56561-48730 (105291)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$80.34

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$80.19

Record

50%

3867-3816 (7683)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$35

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$34.93

Record

49%

7885-8203 (16088)

poshposhCTR<$100

Billy Harris

Invested

$8.87

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$8.85

Record

59%

10125-7117 (17242)

Research grade

NeutralTerence Atmane at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Terence Atmane

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Terence Atmane. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Terence Atmane) and the top 1000 (9 on Billy Harris) disagree here.

whaleBilly Harris 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpBilly Harris 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrBilly Harris 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedTerence Atmane 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Billy Harris 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Terence Atmane wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.