Seoul: Lloyd Harris vs Omar Jasika

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Omar Jasika (50%) · Omar Jasika at 97¢ · $39K held · ends Nov 5

Lloyd Harris3¢Omar Jasika97¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Omar Jasika

Consensus Traders

Omar Jasika 50%

Total Value

$38.6K

Combined PnL

$7.6K

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 97.5¢

+70% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOmar Jasika at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Omar Jasika

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lloyd Harris3%

Omar Jasika97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Omar Jasika8 traders

Total Value$27.9K

Total Shares32,587

Combined PnL+$7.8K

Lloyd Harris8 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares20,975

Combined PnL-$230.59

Omar Jasika — 50%Lloyd Harris — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Omar Jasikaavg 62.5¢	$13.1K	$19.7K	+$6.6K	54% 16767-14068 (30835)
0X 0xF8164A94e27CdCeD0cC975e21308fB099B2D0433-1772692168144CTR	Lloyd Harrisavg 53.5¢	$10.0K	$9.8K	-$187.82	39% 151-238 (389)
RN1	Omar Jasikaavg 46.9¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$23.44	54% 55509-47585 (103094)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Omar Jasikaavg 47.4¢	$2.2K	$2.9K	+$679.18	52% 13528-12376 (25904)
TH thestingsnake	Omar Jasikaavg 74.1¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$173.55	60% 3942-2661 (6603)
1L 1lovejump	Omar Jasikaavg 40.7¢	$339.05	$412.52	+$268.37	53% 610-537 (1147)
TRCM	Omar Jasikaavg 47¢	$408.9	$404.55	-$4.35	55% 3911-3136 (7047)
GH ghostorderCTR	Lloyd Harrisavg 49¢	$362.4	$373.5	+$11.09	62% 4249-2621 (6870)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Lloyd Harrisavg 57¢	$285	$267.5	-$17.5	59% 29970-20691 (50661)
tradecraft	Omar Jasikaavg 27.3¢	$168.29	$252.97	+$84.68	52% 5849-5477 (11326)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Lloyd Harrisavg 89¢	$69.2	$67.25	-$1.94	58% 40596-29352 (69948)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Lloyd Harrisavg 57¢	$62.13	$58.32	-$3.81	50% 3682-3663 (7345)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Lloyd Harrisavg 9.4¢	$62.52	$36.62	-$25.9	49% 18514-18927 (37441)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Lloyd Harrisavg 62.4¢	$79.45	$17.18	-$5.53	48% 3641-3901 (7542)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Lloyd Harrisavg 9¢	$14.79	$15.61	+$0.82	50% 24841-24540 (49381)
HRTrading<$100	Omar Jasikaavg 95¢	$2.43	$2.02	-$0.41	53% 2815-2479 (5294)

HomeRunHazard

Omar Jasika

Invested

$13,063.74

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$6.6K

Record

54%

16767-14068 (30835)

0xF8164A94e27CdCeD0cC975e21308fB099B2D0433-1772692168144CTR

Lloyd Harris

Invested

$10,000

Value

$9.8K

PnL

-$187.82

Record

39%

151-238 (389)

RN1

Omar Jasika

Invested

$3,154.36

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$23.44

Record

54%

55509-47585 (103094)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Omar Jasika

Invested

$2,217.83

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$679.18

Record

52%

13528-12376 (25904)

thestingsnake

Omar Jasika

Invested

$1,035.43

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$173.55

Record

60%

3942-2661 (6603)

1lovejump

Omar Jasika

Invested

$339.05

Value

$412.52

PnL

+$268.37

Record

53%

610-537 (1147)

TRCM

Omar Jasika

Invested

$408.9

Value

$404.55

PnL

-$4.35

Record

55%

3911-3136 (7047)

ghostorderCTR

Lloyd Harris

Invested

$362.4

Value

$373.5

PnL

+$11.09

Record

62%

4249-2621 (6870)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Lloyd Harris

Invested

$285

Value

$267.5

PnL

-$17.5

Record

59%

29970-20691 (50661)

tradecraft

Omar Jasika

Invested

$168.29

Value

$252.97

PnL

+$84.68

Record

52%

5849-5477 (11326)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Lloyd Harris

Invested

$69.2

Value

$67.25

PnL

-$1.94

Record

58%

40596-29352 (69948)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Lloyd Harris

Invested

$62.13

Value

$58.32

PnL

-$3.81

Record

50%

3682-3663 (7345)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Lloyd Harris

Invested

$62.52

Value

$36.62

PnL

-$25.9

Record

49%

18514-18927 (37441)

efntrickCTR<$100

Lloyd Harris

Invested

$79.45

Value

$17.18

PnL

-$5.53

Record

48%

3641-3901 (7542)

sentrioCTR<$100

Lloyd Harris

Invested

$14.79

Value

$15.61

PnL

+$0.82

Record

50%

24841-24540 (49381)

HRTrading<$100

Omar Jasika

Invested

$2.43

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$0.41

Record

53%

2815-2479 (5294)

Research grade

NeutralOmar Jasika at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Omar Jasika

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Omar Jasika wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.