Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nick Hardt, while the market favors Juan Manuel La Serna (63%). 10 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Guayaquil: Nick Hardt vs Juan Manuel La Serna

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Nick Hardt (59%) · Nick Hardt at 38¢ · $36K held · ends Nov 2

Nick Hardt38¢Juan Manuel La Serna62¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nick Hardt

Consensus Traders

Nick Hardt 59%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.4K

Combined PnL

-$536.91

Smart Money Entry

39.3¢ → 37.5¢

-5% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNick Hardt at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nick Hardt

10 of 17 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Juan Manuel La Serna 63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nick Hardt38%

Juan Manuel La Serna63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nick Hardt10 traders

Total Value$17.3K

Total Shares36,511

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Juan Manuel La Serna7 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares17,947

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Nick Hardt — 59%Juan Manuel La Serna — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Nick Hardtavg 48.6¢	$8.6K	$8.7K	+$71.67	52% 13520-12365 (25885)
└ Nick Hardt leg	Nick Hardtavg 48.6¢	$6.0K	$6.2K	+$234.03
└ Juan Manuel La Serna leg	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 52.7¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$162.36
RN1CTR	Nick Hardtavg 36.1¢	$6.6K	$8.5K	+$1.9K	54% 55411-47463 (102874)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 77¢	$4.6K	$3.3K	$-1.3K	52% 106-98 (204)
SA Salad1CTR	Nick Hardtavg 41.3¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$204.07	50% 90-89 (179)
IV Ivan948	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 48.8¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$70.84	46% 51-60 (111)
LA lavendergoomsCTR	Nick Hardtavg 42¢	$2.7K	$2.3K	+$334.47	53% 2600-2337 (4937)
OM omnibus-076daa	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 54.7¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$209.63	49% 18462-18884 (37346)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Nick Hardtavg 46.9¢	$2.7K	$1.2K	-$631.77	60% 3930-2656 (6586)
YE yesmate	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 70.1¢	$1.3K	$787.16	-$481.07	52% 349-326 (675)
0X 0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 71.8¢	$1.9K	$750.44	-$448.71	67% 208-101 (309)
0X 0x1111111111ARB<$100	Nick Hardtavg 42¢	$695.11	$737.31	+$42.2	61% 1706-1069 (2775)
└ Nick Hardt leg	Nick Hardtavg 42¢	$421.36	$506.64	+$85.28
└ Juan Manuel La Serna leg	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 58.7¢	$273.75	$230.67	-$43.08
latvian.demonCTR	Nick Hardtavg 48.4¢	$654	$641.87	-$12.13	54% 625-537 (1162)
US User7429CTR	Nick Hardtavg 42¢	$486	$584.36	+$98.36	55% 8040-6510 (14550)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Nick Hardtavg 30.9¢	$369.87	$534.69	+$164.82	59% 29955-20673 (50628)
MR MrDoucheCTR	Nick Hardtavg 37.7¢	$445.61	$478.88	+$33.26	83% 1680-353 (2033)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Nick Hardtavg 44.2¢	$1.1K	$364.32	+$61.93	53% 601-530 (1131)
└ Juan Manuel La Serna leg	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 55.8¢	$169.76	$187	+$25.55
└ Nick Hardt leg	Nick Hardtavg 44.2¢	$203.63	$177.32	+$36.38
HRTradingARB<$100	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 61.3¢	$247.1	$238.44	-$8.67	54% 2678-2303 (4981)
└ Juan Manuel La Serna leg	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 61.3¢	$162.52	$131.22	-$31.3
└ Nick Hardt leg	Nick Hardtavg 39.8¢	$84.58	$107.21	+$22.63
SH shiifooCTR	Nick Hardtavg 42¢	$210	$202.5	-$7.5	60% 3229-2163 (5392)
BE berlinskies	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 71.6¢	$119.99	$92.83	-$27.16	58% 5734-4211 (9945)
PA pauleta23<$100	Juan Manuel La Sernaavg 54.7¢	$90	$65.3	-$24.7	67% 23053-11450 (34503)
EF efntrickCTR	Nick Hardtavg 44¢	$231.47	$45.42	-$27.99	48% 3634-3892 (7526)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Nick Hardt

Invested

$8,648.39

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$71.67

Record

52%

13520-12365 (25885)

Both legs:

Nick Hardt$6,011.8348.6¢+$234.03

Juan Manuel La Serna$2,636.5652.7¢-$162.36

RN1CTR

Nick Hardt

Invested

$6,644.89

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

54%

55411-47463 (102874)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$4,620.25

Value

$3.3K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

52%

106-98 (204)

Salad1CTR

Nick Hardt

Invested

$2,543.55

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$204.07

Record

50%

90-89 (179)

Ivan948

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$2,715.25

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$70.84

Record

46%

51-60 (111)

lavendergoomsCTR

Nick Hardt

Invested

$2,719.8

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$334.47

Record

53%

2600-2337 (4937)

omnibus-076daa

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$1,596.29

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$209.63

Record

49%

18462-18884 (37346)

thestingsnakeCTR

Nick Hardt

Invested

$2,669.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$631.77

Record

60%

3930-2656 (6586)

yesmate

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$1,268.23

Value

$787.16

PnL

-$481.07

Record

52%

349-326 (675)

0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$1,914.3

Value

$750.44

PnL

-$448.71

Record

67%

208-101 (309)

0x1111111111ARB<$100

Nick Hardt

Invested

$695.11

Value

$737.31

PnL

+$42.2

Record

61%

1706-1069 (2775)

Both legs:

Nick Hardt$421.3642¢+$85.28

Juan Manuel La Serna$273.7558.7¢-$43.08

latvian.demonCTR

Nick Hardt

Invested

$654

Value

$641.87

PnL

-$12.13

Record

54%

625-537 (1162)

User7429CTR

Nick Hardt

Invested

$486

Value

$584.36

PnL

+$98.36

Record

55%

8040-6510 (14550)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Nick Hardt

Invested

$369.87

Value

$534.69

PnL

+$164.82

Record

59%

29955-20673 (50628)

MrDoucheCTR

Nick Hardt

Invested

$445.61

Value

$478.88

PnL

+$33.26

Record

83%

1680-353 (2033)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Nick Hardt

Invested

$1,083.48

Value

$364.32

PnL

+$61.93

Record

53%

601-530 (1131)

Both legs:

Juan Manuel La Serna$169.7655.8¢+$25.55

Nick Hardt$203.6344.2¢+$36.38

HRTradingARB<$100

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$247.1

Value

$238.44

PnL

-$8.67

Record

54%

2678-2303 (4981)

Both legs:

Juan Manuel La Serna$162.5261.3¢-$31.3

Nick Hardt$84.5839.8¢+$22.63

shiifooCTR

Nick Hardt

Invested

$210

Value

$202.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

60%

3229-2163 (5392)

berlinskies

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$119.99

Value

$92.83

PnL

-$27.16

Record

58%

5734-4211 (9945)

pauleta23<$100

Juan Manuel La Serna

Invested

$90

Value

$65.3

PnL

-$24.7

Record

67%

23053-11450 (34503)

efntrickCTR

Nick Hardt

Invested

$231.47

Value

$45.42

PnL

-$27.99

Record

48%

3634-3892 (7526)

Research grade

NeutralNick Hardt at 38%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nick Hardt

10 of 17 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Juan Manuel La Serna 63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nick Hardt wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.