Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yannick Hanfmann, while the market favors Jan-Lennard Struff (60%). 13 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Swiss Indoors Basel: Yannick Hanfmann vs Jan-Lennard Struff

13 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yannick Hanfmann (72%) · Yannick Hanfmann at 41¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 3

Yannick Hanfmann41¢Jan-Lennard Struff59¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yannick Hanfmann

Consensus Traders

Yannick Hanfmann 72%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.9K

Combined PnL

$16.43

Smart Money Entry

44.4¢ → 40.5¢

-9% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYannick Hanfmann at 41%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yannick Hanfmann

13 of 18 top traders (72%)Underdog side (market favors Jan-Lennard Struff 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yannick Hanfmann41%

Jan-Lennard Struff60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jan-Lennard Struff5 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares15,728

Combined PnL+$686.31

Yannick Hanfmann13 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares28,003

Combined PnL-$669.88

Jan-Lennard Struff — 28%Yannick Hanfmann — 72%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ON Onomatopoeia777	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 55¢	$6.6K	$7.3K	+$660	31% 20-44 (64)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yannick Hanfmannavg 45.3¢	$3.4K	$3.1K	-$286.71	58% 40747-29469 (70216)
RN1CTR	Yannick Hanfmannavg 44¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$26.22	54% 55709-47794 (103503)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 55¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$17.57	52% 106-99 (205)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 56¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$8.17	51% 1276-1209 (2485)
└ Jan-Lennard Struff leg	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	-$10.22
└ Yannick Hanfmann leg	Yannick Hanfmannavg 43.4¢	$637.4	$639.45	+$2.05
TRCMCTR	Yannick Hanfmannavg 44.5¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$175.27	55% 3914-3141 (7055)
FL flatbarrelCTR	Yannick Hanfmannavg 45¢	$2.7K	$1.4K	-$104.33	58% 2734-1956 (4690)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Yannick Hanfmannavg 44.9¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$73.69	56% 1808-1410 (3218)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 59.3¢	$1.1K	$920.51	-$7.57	53% 620-544 (1164)
└ Jan-Lennard Struff leg	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 59.3¢	$653.24	$655.46	+$2.42
└ Yannick Hanfmann leg	Yannick Hanfmannavg 41.5¢	$271.81	$265.05	-$9.99
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yannick Hanfmannavg 42.2¢	$826.65	$815.68	-$10.97	59% 44601-31003 (75604)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Yannick Hanfmannavg 44.4¢	$786.76	$770.85	-$15.9	62% 13601-8449 (22050)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Yannick Hanfmannavg 43.4¢	$634.52	$420.19	-$6.51	60% 3960-2663 (6623)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yannick Hanfmannavg 40.5¢	$338.61	$313.73	-$24.88	49% 18594-19014 (37608)
0X 0x3cc65a9097a1c1e134366d6fb96a1e8eed4f53f7<$100	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 50¢	$89.29	$97.32	+$8.04	68% 89-41 (130)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Yannick Hanfmannavg 44¢	$73.92	$74.76	+$0.84	56% 6908-5524 (12432)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yannick Hanfmannavg 45.1¢	$40.64	$40.53	+$0.33	58% 28119-20724 (48843)
EF efntrick<$100	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 59.5¢	$29.25	$30	+$0.75	48% 3650-3913 (7563)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yannick Hanfmannavg 50¢	$25	$26	+$1	58% 18394-13497 (31891)
tradecraft<$100	Jan-Lennard Struffavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.4	-$0.05	52% 5870-5504 (11374)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yannick Hanfmannavg 40¢	$1.16	$1.15	-$0.01	53% 3042-2707 (5749)

Onomatopoeia777

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$6,600

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$660

Record

31%

20-44 (64)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$3,431.47

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$286.71

Record

58%

40747-29469 (70216)

RN1CTR

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$2,307.79

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$26.22

Record

54%

55709-47794 (103503)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$1,933.06

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$17.57

Record

52%

106-99 (205)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$1,782.59

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$8.17

Record

51%

1276-1209 (2485)

Both legs:

Jan-Lennard Struff$1,145.1956¢-$10.22

Yannick Hanfmann$637.443.4¢+$2.05

TRCMCTR

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$1,569.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$175.27

Record

55%

3914-3141 (7055)

flatbarrelCTR

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$2,700

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$104.33

Record

58%

2734-1956 (4690)

SchruteBucksCTR

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$1,345.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$73.69

Record

56%

1808-1410 (3218)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$1,138.18

Value

$920.51

PnL

-$7.57

Record

53%

620-544 (1164)

Both legs:

Jan-Lennard Struff$653.2459.3¢+$2.42

Yannick Hanfmann$271.8141.5¢-$9.99

UpTheBluesCTR

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$826.65

Value

$815.68

PnL

-$10.97

Record

59%

44601-31003 (75604)

LilybaeumCTR

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$786.76

Value

$770.85

PnL

-$15.9

Record

62%

13601-8449 (22050)

thestingsnakeCTR

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$634.52

Value

$420.19

PnL

-$6.51

Record

60%

3960-2663 (6623)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$338.61

Value

$313.73

PnL

-$24.88

Record

49%

18594-19014 (37608)

0x3cc65a9097a1c1e134366d6fb96a1e8eed4f53f7<$100

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$89.29

Value

$97.32

PnL

+$8.04

Record

68%

89-41 (130)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$73.92

Value

$74.76

PnL

+$0.84

Record

56%

6908-5524 (12432)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$40.64

Value

$40.53

PnL

+$0.33

Record

58%

28119-20724 (48843)

efntrick<$100

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$29.25

Value

$30

PnL

+$0.75

Record

48%

3650-3913 (7563)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$25

Value

$26

PnL

+$1

Record

58%

18394-13497 (31891)

tradecraft<$100

Jan-Lennard Struff

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

5870-5504 (11374)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yannick Hanfmann

Invested

$1.16

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

3042-2707 (5749)

Research grade

Research candidateYannick Hanfmann at 41%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yannick Hanfmann

13 of 18 top traders (72%)Underdog side (market favors Jan-Lennard Struff 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yannick Hanfmann wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.