Villa Maria: Valentino Grippo vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Genaro Alberto Olivieri (47%) · Genaro Alberto Olivieri at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9

Valentino Grippo2¢Genaro Alberto Olivieri98¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Consensus Traders

Genaro Alberto Olivieri 47%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$10.26

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 98.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralGenaro Alberto Olivieri at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Valentino Grippo2%

Genaro Alberto Olivieri99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Genaro Alberto Olivieri7 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,634

Combined PnL+$61.7

Valentino Grippo8 traders

Total Value$49.66

Total Shares3,310

Combined PnL-$71.96

Genaro Alberto Olivieri — 47%Valentino Grippo — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

47% of non-arb traders are on Genaro Alberto Olivieri. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleValentino Grippo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpGenaro Alberto Olivieri 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrValentino Grippo 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedValentino Grippo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Valentino Grippo 53% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 98.8¢	$782.16	$783.78	+$1.62	52% 847-783 (1630)
TH thestingsnake	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 95.1¢	$571.47	$595.65	+$24.18	60% 4234-2832 (7066)
LI Limousin	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 98.8¢	$547.54	$568.08	+$20.54	56% 959-749 (1708)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 95.8¢	$383.2	$396.4	+$13.2	51% 1720-1644 (3364)
VE Venusian	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 98.8¢	$321.26	$324.97	+$3.71	53% 928-828 (1756)
1L 1lovejump	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 98.7¢	$356.78	$32.36	-$1.61	52% 705-645 (1350)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Valentino Grippoavg 4.5¢	$35.6	$12	-$23.6	47% 10579-11844 (22423)
RN1CTR<$100	Valentino Grippoavg 5.5¢	$40.65	$11.09	-$29.57	53% 59089-51396 (110485)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Valentino Grippoavg 2¢	$11.71	$9	-$2.71	53% 921-802 (1723)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Valentino Grippoavg 0.9¢	$3.68	$6.31	+$2.63	48% 5299-5685 (10984)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Valentino Grippoavg 4.4¢	$17.6	$6	-$11.6	49% 3264-3355 (6619)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 97.8¢	$4.89	$4.96	+$0.06	52% 14128-12900 (27028)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Valentino Grippoavg 4.3¢	$8.64	$3.01	-$5.62	46% 8263-9657 (17920)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Valentino Grippoavg 1.3¢	$1.26	$1.5	+$0.24	49% 2621-2679 (5300)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Valentino Grippoavg 5¢	$2.47	$0.74	-$1.73	50% 1336-1350 (2686)

MadridTime

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$782.16

Value

$783.78

PnL

+$1.62

Record

52%

847-783 (1630)

thestingsnake

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$571.47

Value

$595.65

PnL

+$24.18

Record

60%

4234-2832 (7066)

Limousin

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$547.54

Value

$568.08

PnL

+$20.54

Record

56%

959-749 (1708)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$383.2

Value

$396.4

PnL

+$13.2

Record

51%

1720-1644 (3364)

Venusian

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$321.26

Value

$324.97

PnL

+$3.71

Record

53%

928-828 (1756)

1lovejump

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$356.78

Value

$32.36

PnL

-$1.61

Record

52%

705-645 (1350)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Valentino Grippo

Invested

$35.6

Value

$12

PnL

-$23.6

Record

47%

10579-11844 (22423)

RN1CTR<$100

Valentino Grippo

Invested

$40.65

Value

$11.09

PnL

-$29.57

Record

53%

59089-51396 (110485)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Valentino Grippo

Invested

$11.71

Value

PnL

-$2.71

Record

53%

921-802 (1723)

smithagentCTR<$100

Valentino Grippo

Invested

$3.68

Value

$6.31

PnL

+$2.63

Record

48%

5299-5685 (10984)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Valentino Grippo

Invested

$17.6

Value

PnL

-$11.6

Record

49%

3264-3355 (6619)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Invested

$4.89

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$0.06

Record

52%

14128-12900 (27028)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Valentino Grippo

Invested

$8.64

Value

$3.01

PnL

-$5.62

Record

46%

8263-9657 (17920)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Valentino Grippo

Invested

$1.26

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0.24

Record

49%

2621-2679 (5300)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Valentino Grippo

Invested

$2.47

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$1.73

Record

50%

1336-1350 (2686)

Research grade

NeutralGenaro Alberto Olivieri at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

47% of non-arb traders are on Genaro Alberto Olivieri. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleValentino Grippo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpGenaro Alberto Olivieri 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrValentino Grippo 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedValentino Grippo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Valentino Grippo 53% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Genaro Alberto Olivieri wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.