Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Tallon Griekspoor, while the market favors Benjamin Bonzi (67%). 14 of 24 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Tallon Griekspoor vs Benjamin Bonzi

14 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Tallon Griekspoor (58%) · Tallon Griekspoor at 34¢ · $224K held · ends Nov 7

Tallon Griekspoor34¢Benjamin Bonzi66¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tallon Griekspoor

Consensus Traders

Tallon Griekspoor 58%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$224.4K

Combined PnL

$3.3K

Smart Money Entry

45.4¢ → 33.5¢

-26% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralTallon Griekspoor at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tallon Griekspoor

14 of 24 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Benjamin Bonzi 67%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tallon Griekspoor34%

Benjamin Bonzi67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tallon Griekspoor14 traders

Total Value$64.4K

Total Shares127,104

Combined PnL+$6.6K

Benjamin Bonzi10 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares23,250

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Tallon Griekspoor — 58%Benjamin Bonzi — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Tallon Griekspoor. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Benjamin Bonzi) and the top 1000 (16 on Tallon Griekspoor) disagree here.

whaleBenjamin Bonzi 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpTallon Griekspoor 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrTallon Griekspoor 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedBenjamin Bonzi 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Tallon Griekspoor 50% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
01 01258787xy48487484545122ARB<$100	Benjamin Bonziavg 58¢	$38.7K	$41.7K	+$3.0K	64% 273-153 (426)
└ Tallon Griekspoor leg	Tallon Griekspooravg 34.8¢	$14.5K	$27.5K	+$13.0K
└ Benjamin Bonzi leg	Benjamin Bonziavg 58¢	$24.2K	$14.2K	$-10.0K
RN1ARB<$100	Benjamin Bonziavg 56.7¢	$38.7K	$40.5K	+$1.8K	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
└ Benjamin Bonzi leg	Benjamin Bonziavg 56.7¢	$24.9K	$31.0K	+$6.1K
└ Tallon Griekspoor leg	Tallon Griekspooravg 42.6¢	$13.8K	$9.5K	$-4.3K
KK kkookkooCTR	Tallon Griekspooravg 56.4¢	$21.0K	$24.6K	+$3.6K	51% 605-580 (1185)
YE yesmateARB<$100	Benjamin Bonziavg 59.3¢	$24.0K	$23.3K	-$684.56	52% 361-331 (692)
└ Benjamin Bonzi leg	Benjamin Bonziavg 59.3¢	$17.8K	$17.3K	-$550
└ Tallon Griekspoor leg	Tallon Griekspooravg 43.4¢	$6.2K	$6.1K	-$134.56
LU LuzzzerCTR	Tallon Griekspooravg 54.9¢	$18.1K	$21.8K	+$3.7K	46% 117-136 (253)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Benjamin Bonziavg 55.7¢	$19.1K	$20.7K	+$1.6K	52% 13785-12588 (26373)
└ Benjamin Bonzi leg	Benjamin Bonziavg 55.7¢	$12.0K	$14.1K	+$2.1K
└ Tallon Griekspoor leg	Tallon Griekspooravg 37.3¢	$7.1K	$6.6K	-$538.97
RO robustmstCTR	Tallon Griekspooravg 30.8¢	$12.5K	$11.9K	-$529.74	48% 107-116 (223)
SH SharkVisionARB<$100	Benjamin Bonziavg 53¢	$10.9K	$10.9K	-$47.9	71% 1362-567 (1929)
└ Tallon Griekspoor leg	Tallon Griekspooravg 47.4¢	$5.2K	$7.2K	+$2.0K
└ Benjamin Bonzi leg	Benjamin Bonziavg 53¢	$5.8K	$3.7K	$-2.1K
OL olpyARB<$100	Benjamin Bonziavg 60.2¢	$8.9K	$9.3K	+$357.16	73% 400-150 (550)
└ Tallon Griekspoor leg	Tallon Griekspooravg 36¢	$3.3K	$6.1K	+$2.8K
└ Benjamin Bonzi leg	Benjamin Bonziavg 60.2¢	$5.6K	$3.2K	$-2.4K
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Benjamin Bonziavg 60.8¢	$4.6K	$5.0K	+$391.71	48% 922-993 (1915)
└ Tallon Griekspoor leg	Tallon Griekspooravg 34.9¢	$1.8K	$3.4K	+$1.6K
└ Benjamin Bonzi leg	Benjamin Bonziavg 60.8¢	$2.8K	$1.5K	$-1.2K
12xmrboltCTR	Tallon Griekspooravg 35.5¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$116.65	44% 246-308 (554)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516	Benjamin Bonziavg 50¢	$4.3K	$2.9K	$-1.4K	51% 113-108 (221)
C6 C63AMG	Benjamin Bonziavg 40.9¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	-$354.41	73% 869-329 (1198)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Benjamin Bonziavg 55.9¢	$2.5K	$1.5K	-$992.7	51% 1446-1390 (2836)
VL vladiva	Benjamin Bonziavg 47.9¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$435.9	26% 63-176 (239)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Tallon Griekspooravg 36¢	$772.54	$719.21	-$53.33	49% 19161-19553 (38714)
SE sentrioCTR	Tallon Griekspooravg 56.8¢	$486.27	$564.76	+$78.48	50% 24920-24613 (49533)
BE berlinskies	Benjamin Bonziavg 58.1¢	$603.98	$353.34	-$250.64	58% 5850-4292 (10142)
tradecraftCTR	Tallon Griekspooravg 41¢	$205	$330	+$125	51% 6007-5697 (11704)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Tallon Griekspooravg 38.9¢	$200.82	$284	+$83.19	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
└ Tallon Griekspoor leg	Tallon Griekspooravg 38.9¢	$121.98	$207.16	+$85.19
└ Benjamin Bonzi leg	Benjamin Bonziavg 34.9¢	$78.84	$76.84	-$2
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Tallon Griekspooravg 37.2¢	$1.1K	$266.25	-$137.51	60% 4069-2739 (6808)
PA pauleta23	Benjamin Bonziavg 62.1¢	$233.53	$261.16	+$27.62	67% 23335-11740 (35075)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Benjamin Bonziavg 34¢	$85	$196.25	+$111.25	59% 30472-21186 (51658)
HRTradingARB<$100	Benjamin Bonziavg 47.4¢	$127.9	$143.86	+$15.95	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
└ Benjamin Bonzi leg	Benjamin Bonziavg 47.4¢	$77.96	$107.75	+$29.79
└ Tallon Griekspoor leg	Tallon Griekspooravg 47.7¢	$49.94	$36.11	-$13.84
RE RebornAthenaCTR	Tallon Griekspooravg 47¢	$100	$140.43	+$40.43	53% 2011-1812 (3823)

01258787xy48487484545122ARB<$100

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$38,696.74

Value

$41.7K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

64%

273-153 (426)

Both legs:

Tallon Griekspoor$14,513.3934.8¢+$13.0K

Benjamin Bonzi$24,183.3558¢$-10.0K

RN1ARB<$100

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$38,738.1

Value

$40.5K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

Both legs:

Benjamin Bonzi$24,939.9156.7¢+$6.1K

Tallon Griekspoor$13,798.242.6¢$-4.3K

kkookkooCTR

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$21,014.65

Value

$24.6K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

51%

605-580 (1185)

yesmateARB<$100

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$24,027.37

Value

$23.3K

PnL

-$684.56

Record

52%

361-331 (692)

Both legs:

Benjamin Bonzi$17,80059.3¢-$550

Tallon Griekspoor$6,227.3743.4¢-$134.56

LuzzzerCTR

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$18,118.59

Value

$21.8K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

46%

117-136 (253)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$19,125.25

Value

$20.7K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

52%

13785-12588 (26373)

Both legs:

Benjamin Bonzi$11,998.8855.7¢+$2.1K

Tallon Griekspoor$7,126.3637.3¢-$538.97

robustmstCTR

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$12,456.17

Value

$11.9K

PnL

-$529.74

Record

48%

107-116 (223)

SharkVisionARB<$100

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$10,924.3

Value

$10.9K

PnL

-$47.9

Record

71%

1362-567 (1929)

Both legs:

Tallon Griekspoor$5,154.7347.4¢+$2.0K

Benjamin Bonzi$5,769.5753¢$-2.1K

olpyARB<$100

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$8,925.14

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$357.16

Record

73%

400-150 (550)

Both legs:

Tallon Griekspoor$3,339.1936¢+$2.8K

Benjamin Bonzi$5,585.9560.2¢$-2.4K

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$4,585.79

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$391.71

Record

48%

922-993 (1915)

Both legs:

Tallon Griekspoor$1,813.9234.9¢+$1.6K

Benjamin Bonzi$2,771.8760.8¢$-1.2K

12xmrboltCTR

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$4,022.27

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$116.65

Record

44%

246-308 (554)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$4,250

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

51%

113-108 (221)

C63AMG

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$2,092.15

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$354.41

Record

73%

869-329 (1198)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$2,536.3

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$992.7

Record

51%

1446-1390 (2836)

vladiva

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$435.9

Record

26%

63-176 (239)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$772.54

Value

$719.21

PnL

-$53.33

Record

49%

19161-19553 (38714)

sentrioCTR

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$486.27

Value

$564.76

PnL

+$78.48

Record

50%

24920-24613 (49533)

berlinskies

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$603.98

Value

$353.34

PnL

-$250.64

Record

58%

5850-4292 (10142)

tradecraftCTR

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$205

Value

$330

PnL

+$125

Record

51%

6007-5697 (11704)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$200.82

Value

$284

PnL

+$83.19

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

Both legs:

Tallon Griekspoor$121.9838.9¢+$85.19

Benjamin Bonzi$78.8434.9¢-$2

thestingsnakeCTR

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$1,072.23

Value

$266.25

PnL

-$137.51

Record

60%

4069-2739 (6808)

pauleta23

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$233.53

Value

$261.16

PnL

+$27.62

Record

67%

23335-11740 (35075)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$85

Value

$196.25

PnL

+$111.25

Record

59%

30472-21186 (51658)

HRTradingARB<$100

Benjamin Bonzi

Invested

$127.9

Value

$143.86

PnL

+$15.95

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Both legs:

Benjamin Bonzi$77.9647.4¢+$29.79

Tallon Griekspoor$49.9447.7¢-$13.84

RebornAthenaCTR

Tallon Griekspoor

Invested

$100

Value

$140.43

PnL

+$40.43

Record

53%

2011-1812 (3823)

Research grade

NeutralTallon Griekspoor at 34%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Tallon Griekspoor

14 of 24 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Benjamin Bonzi 67%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Tallon Griekspoor. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Benjamin Bonzi) and the top 1000 (16 on Tallon Griekspoor) disagree here.

whaleBenjamin Bonzi 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpTallon Griekspoor 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrTallon Griekspoor 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedBenjamin Bonzi 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Tallon Griekspoor 50% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tallon Griekspoor wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.