Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Marvin Moeller, while the market favors Hugo Grenier (57%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Taranto: Hugo Grenier vs Marvin Moeller
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Marvin Moeller (33%) · Marvin Moeller at 43¢ · $159 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Marvin Moeller
3
Marvin Moeller 33%
$159.4
-$6.56
Research grade
NeutralMarvin Moeller at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Hugo Grenier 57%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Marvin Moelleravg 46.7¢ | $146.02 | $134.59 | -$6.73 | 57% 29497-21832 (51329) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Hugo Grenieravg 58¢ | $29.98 | $17.54 | +$0.15 | 55% 7418-5961 (13379) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Hugo Grenieravg 57.5¢ | $17.25 | $7.27 | +$0.02 | 58% 43210-31449 (74659) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.