Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Hugo Grenier (55%) · Hugo Grenier at 73¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 22

Hugo Grenier73¢Florent Bax27¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hugo Grenier

Consensus Traders

Hugo Grenier 55%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$46.59

Smart Money Entry

75.3¢ → 72.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralHugo Grenier at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hugo Grenier

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hugo Grenier73%

Florent Bax28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hugo Grenier6 traders

Total Value$805.37

Total Shares1,043

Combined PnL+$19.67

Florent Bax5 traders

Total Value$256.59

Total Shares937

Combined PnL+$26.92

Hugo Grenier — 55%Florent Bax — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Hugo Grenier. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHugo Grenier 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHugo Grenier 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedHugo Grenier 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Hugo Grenier 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EF efntrick	Hugo Grenieravg 76¢	$332.36	$338.92	+$6.56	45% 110-134 (244)
GA Gaditima	Hugo Grenieravg 74¢	$185	$193.75	+$8.75	49% 380-398 (778)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Florent Baxavg 23.8¢	$119.68	$138.36	+$18.68	38% 1316-2144 (3460)
Basquetipster	Hugo Grenieravg 75¢	$134.58	$136.37	+$1.79	17% 17-84 (101)
VeryLucky888	Hugo Grenieravg 76¢	$102.6	$104.63	+$2.02	53% 1840-1607 (3447)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Florent Baxavg 26¢	$67.55	$71.5	+$3.95	50% 2819-2838 (5657)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Florent Baxavg 25.1¢	$30.33	$32.62	+$2.29	56% 636-504 (1140)
PA Pan9X<$100	Hugo Grenieravg 76¢	$27.36	$27.9	+$0.54	50% 2155-2179 (4334)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Florent Baxavg 23¢	$10.47	$12.51	+$2.04	38% 1289-2127 (3416)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Hugo Grenieravg 76¢	$3.8	$3.8	+$0	43% 845-1130 (1975)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Florent Baxavg 23¢	$1.64	$1.6	-$0.04	37% 1308-2191 (3499)

efntrick

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$332.36

Value

$338.92

PnL

+$6.56

Record

45%

110-134 (244)

Gaditima

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$185

Value

$193.75

PnL

+$8.75

Record

49%

380-398 (778)

MadridTimeCTR

Florent Bax

Invested

$119.68

Value

$138.36

PnL

+$18.68

Record

38%

1316-2144 (3460)

Basquetipster

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$134.58

Value

$136.37

PnL

+$1.79

Record

17%

17-84 (101)

VeryLucky888

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$102.6

Value

$104.63

PnL

+$2.02

Record

53%

1840-1607 (3447)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Florent Bax

Invested

$67.55

Value

$71.5

PnL

+$3.95

Record

50%

2819-2838 (5657)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Florent Bax

Invested

$30.33

Value

$32.62

PnL

+$2.29

Record

56%

636-504 (1140)

Pan9X<$100

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$27.36

Value

$27.9

PnL

+$0.54

Record

50%

2155-2179 (4334)

LimousinCTR<$100

Florent Bax

Invested

$10.47

Value

$12.51

PnL

+$2.04

Record

38%

1289-2127 (3416)

ameisgoat11<$100

Hugo Grenier

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

845-1130 (1975)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Florent Bax

Invested

$1.64

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.04

Record

37%

1308-2191 (3499)

Research grade

NeutralHugo Grenier at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hugo Grenier

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Hugo Grenier. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpHugo Grenier 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHugo Grenier 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedHugo Grenier 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Hugo Grenier 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hugo Grenier wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.