BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Borna Gojo vs Ugo Humbert
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Ugo Humbert (75%) · Ugo Humbert at 67¢ · $982 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Ugo Humbert
4
Ugo Humbert 75%
1 arb excluded
$981.68
$25.64
66.9¢ → 66.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUgo Humbert at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Ugo Humbert. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K5 k56 | Ugo Humbertavg 67¢ | $750 | $750 | +$0 | 1% 2-205 (207) |
 VeryLucky888 | Ugo Humbertavg 66.3¢ | $1.5K | $158.32 | +$25.74 | 51% 330-315 (645) |
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100 | Borna Gojoavg 32¢ | $55.24 | $55.87 | +$0.63 | 40% 240-361 (601) |
| └ Borna Gojo leg | Borna Gojoavg 32¢ | $31.6 | $32.59 | +$0.99 | |
| └ Ugo Humbert leg | Ugo Humbertavg 67¢ | $23.64 | $23.29 | -$0.35 | |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Ugo Humbertavg 67¢ | $14.07 | $13.86 | -$0.21 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Borna Gojoavg 32¢ | $3.52 | $3.63 | +$0.11 | 29% 307-748 (1055) |
Invested
$750
Value
$750
PnL
+$0
Record
1%
2-205 (207)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,499.04
Value
$158.32
PnL
+$25.74
Record
51%
330-315 (645)
Invested
$55.24
Value
$55.87
PnL
+$0.63
Record
40%
240-361 (601)
Both legs:
Invested
$14.07
Value
$13.86
PnL
-$0.21
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
Invested
$3.52
Value
$3.63
PnL
+$0.11
Record
29%
307-748 (1055)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.