Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Michael Geerts, while the market favors Sumit Nagal (72%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Hersonissos 3: Michael Geerts vs Sumit Nagal
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Michael Geerts (57%) · Michael Geerts at 28¢ · $137 held · ends Nov 18
⚠️
Avoid
Michael Geerts
7
Michael Geerts 57%
$137.41
-$5.58
Research grade
AvoidMichael Geerts at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Sumit Nagal 72%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Michael Geerts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Sumit Nagalavg 68¢ | $51.57 | $53.85 | +$2.28 | 40% 234-357 (591) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Michael Geertsavg 34.1¢ | $44.02 | $37.47 | -$6.54 | 28% 279-704 (983) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Sumit Nagalavg 71¢ | $22.72 | $22.72 | +$0 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Michael Geertsavg 29¢ | $11.76 | $11.76 | +$0 | 28% 275-716 (991) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Michael Geertsavg 35¢ | $6.65 | $5.51 | -$1.14 | 28% 279-730 (1009) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Sumit Nagalavg 71¢ | $3.55 | $3.55 | +$0 | 26% 181-519 (700) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Michael Geertsavg 31¢ | $2.73 | $2.55 | -$0.18 | 28% 285-731 (1016) |
Invested
$51.57
Value
$53.85
PnL
+$2.28
Record
40%
234-357 (591)
Invested
$44.02
Value
$37.47
PnL
-$6.54
Record
28%
279-704 (983)
Invested
$22.72
Value
$22.72
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
Invested
$11.76
Value
$11.76
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
275-716 (991)
Invested
$6.65
Value
$5.51
PnL
-$1.14
Record
28%
279-730 (1009)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$3.55
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
181-519 (700)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$2.55
PnL
-$0.18
Record
28%
285-731 (1016)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.