Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hugo Gaston, while the market favors Moise Kouame (64%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Brest: Hugo Gaston vs Moise Kouame

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Hugo Gaston (43%) · Hugo Gaston at 36¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 5

Hugo Gaston36¢Moise Kouame64¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hugo Gaston

Consensus Traders

Hugo Gaston 43%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$3.16

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 36¢

-36% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralHugo Gaston at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hugo Gaston

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Moise Kouame 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hugo Gaston36%

Moise Kouame64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hugo Gaston3 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,612

Combined PnL+$10.56

Moise Kouame4 traders

Total Value$62.25

Total Shares147

Combined PnL-$13.72

Hugo Gaston — 43%Moise Kouame — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Hugo Gaston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMoise Kouame 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpHugo Gaston 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHugo Gaston 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedMoise Kouame 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Moise Kouame 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Hugo Gastonavg 56¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$0	38% 480-795 (1275)
VeryLucky888CTR	Hugo Gastonavg 53¢	$181.32	$191.58	+$10.26	58% 41239-29904 (71143)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Moise Kouameavg 53.1¢	$33.43	$27.72	-$5.71	52% 13665-12485 (26150)
0xheavy888<$100	Moise Kouameavg 50¢	$33.94	$27.49	-$6.45	55% 6994-5612 (12606)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Hugo Gastonavg 52¢	$15.69	$11.19	+$0.3	60% 4003-2690 (6693)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Moise Kouameavg 53¢	$5.3	$4.4	-$0.9	—
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Moise Kouameavg 55¢	$3.3	$2.64	-$0.66	58% 18502-13592 (32094)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$3,500

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

480-795 (1275)

VeryLucky888CTR

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$181.32

Value

$191.58

PnL

+$10.26

Record

58%

41239-29904 (71143)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$33.43

Value

$27.72

PnL

-$5.71

Record

52%

13665-12485 (26150)

0xheavy888<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$33.94

Value

$27.49

PnL

-$6.45

Record

55%

6994-5612 (12606)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$15.69

Value

$11.19

PnL

+$0.3

Record

60%

4003-2690 (6693)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$5.3

Value

$4.4

PnL

-$0.9

Record

—

BillBenter2026<$100

Moise Kouame

Invested

$3.3

Value

$2.64

PnL

-$0.66

Record

58%

18502-13592 (32094)

Research grade

NeutralHugo Gaston at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hugo Gaston

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Moise Kouame 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Hugo Gaston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMoise Kouame 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpHugo Gaston 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHugo Gaston 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedMoise Kouame 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Moise Kouame 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hugo Gaston wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.